Russia has changed its tactics. After the war was concentrated almost exclusively in the east over the summer and large parts of Ukraine were spared direct hostilities, Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin (70) has had all major cities in Ukraine fired again – especially the electricity grid – for some time.
In this way, Putin wants to exhaust the Ukrainians. Winter is approaching and the destroyed energy resources are likely to freeze the population. This is exactly what the Kremlin head is counting on, explains Marcel Berni (34), a strategy expert at the ETH Zurich Military Academy.
The great hope in Moscow is that the Ukrainians will eventually revolt against their leadership. The winter tactics are not only aimed at Ukraine, but also at the West. Putin assumes that the West will end its support for Ukraine in the winter because the pressure on the states could increase. With the energy crisis, he hopes to bring the West to its knees. He wants to scare. First he used a grain block as leverage, then the gas. According to the strategy, once Europe freezes, that should be the end of support for Ukraine.
“That would be a devastating signal for world politics”
But how likely is it that the West can no longer support Ukraine? Military expert Berni is convinced: it will not come to that. “I believe Putin has made a huge miscalculation with this strategy. Nobody knows how hard the winter will be. In addition, the coalition for support to Ukraine is very broad, cracks are imperceptible, at least not from the outside. » The US in particular would have a great interest in a weakened Russia. The government of Joe Biden (79) does not want to jeopardize this weakening.
Moreover, the West would lose its credibility as a reliable partner if it stopped providing aid. “That would be a devastating signal for world politics, it would be the signal of a weak West. From today’s perspective, it is therefore unlikely that support for Ukraine will suddenly collapse,” the ETH expert continued.
Continue until the missiles run out
That is why Vladimir Putin continues to rely on missile terror. It was not until Monday morning that the capital Kiev was shelled again. That’s not surprising, Berni tells Blick. “In recent days, Russia has repeatedly said that it no longer wants to carry out large-scale attacks on the cities. However, it has happened again.”
It fits Russia’s strategy to do the opposite after an announcement. That too is part of the war of attrition. “Putin is playing for the time. He is convinced that the longer the war lasts, the more dissatisfied the Ukrainian population will become.”
Berni believes that is why Putin will continue – “until he runs out of missiles and drones or the soldiers rehearse a wide-ranging uprising”. The Russian power elites could not afford a war defeat, as a look at history shows. In the past, the defeats of the Russian army usually ended with the resignation or expulsion of the political elite. Putin knows that very well. That’s why he doesn’t give up,” Berni says.
Collapse in a few weeks?
There are already rumors in Russia that the long-serving president will not be able to run in the next elections because of the war in Ukraine. There are also power struggles within the Kremlin. Berni: «Putin knows that ultranationalists such as Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (46) or Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin (61) can also pose a threat to him. These ultra-nationalists currently have a lot of influence within the Kremlin – too big for Putin to just ignore.” Therefore, he does everything he can to please this group, and for them the only option is to continue the war.
Berni therefore estimates that the war could last even longer. The Russians’ arsenal is not exhausted and there is no sign of widespread resistance within the military. But: “There can be an insurgency within the military very quickly. No one knows exactly when that will happen. But a major strategic defeat, such as the loss of an important city like Kherson, can have unexpected consequences.”
If part of the Russian front collapses completely, according to Berni, “it could have a knock-on effect — and collapse the entire army in a matter of weeks.”