Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the United States has poured more money into helping Ukraine than anyone else. It’s about $40 billion in humanitarian, financial and military aid; much more than the European Union (14 billion), the United Kingdom (5 billion) and the pledges of other major donor countries such as Germany, Canada and Poland.

US military support leads to a successful counteroffensive in eastern and southern Ukraine. So far, Democratic President Biden has had the support of his own Democrats as well as most Republicans in Congress. Despite former President Trump and some of his most outspoken supporters in Congress continuing to question the US response to Putin’s aggression.

There are still large majorities in favor of US aid to Ukraine. A recent poll shows 72 percent of Americans think so, including 68 percent of Republicans.

Growing Concerns

But on the eve of intermediate exams – the midterm elections on November 8, which will determine who holds power in both chambers of Congress – growing concerns about the extension of massive US support to Ukraine. Not least because half of the current Republican congressional candidates are outspoken supporters of Trump. If they win additional seats on November 8th, their vote will carry more weight.

Because the Republicans currently have serious chances in the polls of winning both the House of Representatives and the Senate. A Republican majority in the House of Representatives would have much more influence over the amount and use of aid via a budget bill and could block more generous proposals for support.

debate on both sides

In anticipation of this, Kevin McCarthy, the current Republican House leader, threw in the towel earlier this month by questioning whether “blank checks” should be issued to Ukraine in the future. McCarthy was immediately criticized by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, but the debate over unconditional support in the party is certainly there, and more emphatic than it was at the start of the war.

Incidentally, this discussion is also being held on the left wing of the Democrats. Under pressure from the White House, thirty outspokenly progressive Democrats withdrew a letter urging Biden to put Ukraine-Russia negotiations first.

And what will Europe do next?

Of course, given the chance of Republicans gaining a majority in Congress, that will also give European leaders pause for thought. So far, no European leader has openly commented on whether US billions in support of Ukraine and securing the eastern borders of NATO member states will make the situation after the US elections even more uncertain.

But there is much speculation in think tanks about the possibility that the evidence of this support is fading and what the European response will be. Especially in the long term, when an expected economic recession with high energy prices also causes politicians in Europe to question further support for the war in favor of new negotiations with Russia.

Former Dutch Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer no longer rules out the possibility that the intermediate exams could be decisive for the further course of the war in Ukraine.

Curious about what else the congressional elections are about? Correspondent Lucas Waagmeester tells you in this video: