Northern Ireland political crisis: new elections to resolve stalemate Steinmeier agrees with Germany on ‘rough years’ and renunciation

As the two main parties failed to agree on a unity government within the allotted time on Friday, the British province is now heading for its second election in a year. The British central government is likely to announce early new elections next Friday; a possible date is December 15th.

But experts are convinced that the next vote will not lead to a solution either. In Belfast, the fronts are more likely to harden. The former Civil War province is threatened with a vicious circle. In the smallest part of the United Kingdom with more than 1.9 million inhabitants, the focus is on religion, demographics and the role between Great Britain and Ireland.

The trigger for the stalemate is the protestant DUP party’s refusal to form a government with Catholic Sinn Fein, who won the majority of the vote in May’s elections. Such a two-tier unity government was mandated by the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which ended the civil war. Before that, Catholics, advocating reunification with Ireland, and Protestants – mostly supporters of the union with Britain – had been at odds for decades.

Demographics make the situation more difficult

Nearly 25 years after the peace agreement, the political fronts still run along confessional lines. The fact that there are now more Catholics living in the province, which was once dominated by Protestants, makes the situation even more difficult. Now unionists like the DUP fear the demographics will encourage secession from Britain and a union with Ireland.

As a condition of joining the government, the DUP is demanding that the special rules for Northern Ireland, which London and Brussels agreed in the wake of Brexit, be reversed. The scheme aims to avoid a hard border with EU member Ireland. But it has also created a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, with trade difficulties.

The DUP is not denying that all the other parties in Northern Ireland, but also the government of neighboring Ireland and now even the British central government are asking them to give in. Party leader Jeffrey Donaldson said it was the will of his voters to bury the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol.

Northern Ireland Protocol not popular

Critics accuse the DUP of holding the province hostage. “Government budgets to support the population have been frozen because the DUP is blocking local government,” said Green MEP Anna Cavazzini, chair of the European Parliament’s Internal Market Committee.

To make matters worse, London wants to withdraw the internationally binding Northern Ireland Protocol. The EU has also admitted that the regulation, which is intended to prevent the circumvention of the EU customs border, has led to problems in everyday life. For example, some foodstuffs can no longer be exported duty-free from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. But when it comes to a solution, the UK and the EU are still far apart. The fact that there is legislation in the British Parliament that would allow London to unilaterally terminate the agreement does not help.

Some experts are already pointing to a last resort. Legally, Northern Ireland could be governed directly from London without forming a local executive. But such a move brings new tensions and possibly new violence: for the nationalists, it would amount to a hostile takeover. (cpfsda/dpa)