Blick evaluates the conflicting messages: who actually has the upper hand in the war in Ukraine?

The Russians are advancing – but at a snail’s pace

One thing is certain: the Ukrainian spring offensive has failed. The areas occupied by the Russians could only be partially recaptured. The enemy forces still face each other on a 1,000 kilometer long front line. There is heavy fighting in Kupyansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Donetsk. The Russians advanced in three places. Vladimir Putin (71) praised these military successes in his election victory speech on Sunday. What he does not mention: these are conquered villages, occupied streets, a few hundred meters of land – and all this with great losses. Ukrainian authorities report that 810 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously injured on March 18, 2024 alone. Russia occupies 18 percent of Ukraine in the east. That is only eleven percent more than before the invasion began on February 24, 2022. Yet the battle for Ukraine is tough. Although tactically superior, the frontline forces lack ammunition for their artillery, fortifications and approximately 500,000 soldiers. Western observers fear that a major breakthrough by the Russians could have a domino effect and ultimately put Ukraine on the defensive.

Ukraine has the upper hand here

Ukraine is locked in trench warfare on land, but its army has the upper hand in the Black Sea. Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian ships, shipyards, ammunition depots and infrastructure have driven Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from Crimea. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Russia is believed to have lost about 40 percent of its naval tonnage since the start of the war. Landing ships, frigates and submarines were moved from their main base in Sevastopol to the port of Novorossiysk, 300 kilometers east, in the Russian interior. Although Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian ports with drones and long-range missiles, the attacks have little effect on the sea. Ukraine allows merchant ships to sail to and from its ports near its coast. Grain exports to the Middle East have returned to pre-war levels.

High losses – no problem for Putin

The trench warfare weakens Ukraine. Putin, on the other hand, can afford to buy time. He was elected head of state for the fifth time with a supposedly overwhelming majority and can now do whatever he wants for another six years. Putin long ago turned his empire into a war economy. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (46) is dependent on arms supplies from the West, Russia intensively produces its own artillery and ammunition and also imports drones and grenades from Iran and North Korea. The Kremlin can also rely on ‘human material’. According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (68), Russia has a total of 25 million reservists. Two million reservists are already in the starting blocks for a new mobilization. Enough to supply the thousands of soldiers dying at the front. Western intelligence services estimate that more than 350,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured in the ground offensive since the start of the war.

The Western struggle is playing into the hands of the Kremlin

Vladimir Putin will welcome the disagreement in the West when it comes to urgently needed support for Ukraine. US Republicans block $60 billion in military aid in the House of Representatives. Germany denies Zelenskiy the Taurus guided missile he wants. And France is arousing the displeasure of its partners with its proposal to send ground troops to Ukraine if necessary.

Presidential elections are also coming up in the US. NATO opponent Donald Trump (78) could move back to the White House. Nine days ago, Trump told Hungarian President Viktor Orban during his visit to Florida that he would not pay a cent to Ukraine. But whether Putin’s calculations will work remains to be seen. Because NATO does not want to give up on Ukraine. Joe Biden put together his own emergency package last Tuesday: weapons worth $300 million will soon go to Kiev. Although Germany is not supplying Taurus missiles, Ukraine could soon receive British Storm Shadow cruise missiles in a ring swap with Britain. And Trump hasn’t been elected yet.