Operation “Porcupine”: This is how Taiwan wants to defend itself against China. Events escalate in Tigray – but catastrophe has already arrived

Xi Jinping has achieved his goal. The authoritarian ruler was re-elected general secretary at the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) party convention last weekend. For the People’s Republic, this equates to a revolution, because to stay in power, Xi had previously undermined all of the rules in China limiting a president’s term.

After this party congress, one terrifying realization remains: the Chinese president has not only consolidated his long-term power in China, he has also subdued the CP and knocked out his internal party critics. It was an inner display of power.

Xi and his supporters have increased their absolute control over the world’s most populous country. This turning point was the main goal in the Chinese ruler’s personal agenda for 2022. Now his focus is once again on China’s geopolitical rise and on a major ideological goal of the Chinese president: the forced “unification” of mainland China with Taiwan.

The danger of invasion is increasing. While a possible response to this is discussed in the US, the small island republic is preparing for such a scenario. The signs are bad as China’s military ascendancy in the South China Sea is increasing. Taiwan’s most effective weapon against its powerful neighbor is, above all, the support of the United States. But is that enough? What has Taiwan to do against China itself?

David against Goliath

A look at the numbers gives Taiwan little hope. A country with 23 million inhabitants faces a gigantic Chinese empire of 1.4 billion people. And that’s not all.

Xi has greatly upgraded his military over the past decade and the Chinese fleet now has more warships than the United States. The People’s Republic is a nuclear power and has ten times as many active military personnel as Taiwan. The Taiwanese army says it has a reserve of 1.5 million men, but with nearly 90,000 soldiers on duty, it is a dwarf compared to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army with its one million active soldiers.

China also has four times as many fighter jets and seven times as many main battle tanks, and the Chinese navy has 32 destroyers and two aircraft carriers. The People’s Republic of China has the third largest air force in the world with more than 1,600 combat aircraft, while Taiwan has only 400. In an armed conflict, the People’s Republic would also have many more reserves – reportedly more than 600 million trained reservists, more equipment and significantly greater financial strength.

The actual combat effectiveness of the Chinese military cannot be quantified precisely because Xi’s forces have little war experience. Russia has also miscalculated in Ukraine, despite its apparent superiority. Nevertheless, the military between China and Taiwan would become a battle between David and Goliath. Asian security experts speak of a dragon trying to eat a porcupine.

Defense concept: “porcupine”

This comparison is no coincidence. Relying on a “porcupine strategy” in a possible attack by the Chinese military, Taiwan calls the term “porcupine” (Taiwan for porcupine). Even large predators respect the spines of the small mammals, that’s the logic.

The small island republic has been preparing for a Chinese attack for decades – so such an operation should not be an easy one despite the military ascendancy of the People’s Republic. In the event of an imminent invasion, Taiwan would be turned into a fortress, with numerous bunkers and underground passages.

The porcupine concept is primarily intended to deter the Chinese from attacking. In addition, Taiwan’s defense plan takes advantage of the island’s geography: the Chinese would have to land landing craft on a steep and densely forested coast with a complex defense network. Perfect for a guerrilla fight.

In any case, the Taiwanese defenders will see the Chinese troops arrive. The US is therefore supplying Taiwan with modern anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. In addition, contracts were signed in the summer for the supply of Himars artillery systems, which have proven themselves in Ukraine in the fight against the Russian army.

The Taiwanese military’s plan is to make China’s landing on the island more difficult and to keep Chinese troops in door-to-door fighting until US military support arrives.

“We will not be intimidated”

Because Taiwan alone has no chance of military action, the most important asset in the fight with China is the support of the United States. While there is no alliance or commitment to aid between the US and Taiwan, US President Joe Biden made it clear in a fall 2021 interview with CNN: “We have an obligation to do this.” He meant morality.

For the United States, in its struggle with China, losing Taiwan would be a huge geostrategic defeat. That is why the US Navy has increased its presence in the South China Sea in recent years. There is always an American aircraft carrier in the region, and the Americans have military bases within easy reach in Malaysia and on the Japanese island of Okinawa. From today, Taiwan only has to hold out for one more day.

The biggest risk for the island republic is therefore that the balance of power between the US and the People’s Republic will shift further in favor of China. The consequences of a direct conflict between the superpowers would already have catastrophic consequences worldwide. At some point, it may become too expensive for the Americans to defend Taiwan.

“We will not be intimidated by high winds, turbulent seas and even dangerous storms,” ​​Xi said at the Communist Party Congress in Beijing. The country is facing “drastic changes in the international environment, especially with attempts at blackmail, containment, blockades and maximum pressure”. It is the first time that Xi speaks of “blackmail”. He probably wants to join the ranks behind him in the geostrategic battle with the United States. Xi promotes a China that is no longer intimidated, especially by the West.

Nevertheless, the Chinese president also sees the weighty dilemma his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has found himself in by attacking Ukraine. Xi is acting more cautiously and pursuing more long-term goals: economic dominance remains the key to becoming the dominant superpower. For this, the People’s Republic needs the West and not an economic war. Therefore, if necessary, Xi can wait to invade until perhaps a president who doesn’t care about Taiwan’s fate in the White House returns.

But one thing seems clear: if China’s leaders see weakness in the West, they will strike in Taiwan. Xi waits for his chance.

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