Pessimism is spreading in Europe – only a few believe in a Ukrainian victory. Germans follow navigation systems and endanger their lives in the Australian wilderness

Suffering, death and destruction have been a bitter reality for Ukrainians for two years; there is no end to the war in sight. But support from European countries is declining. The West is war-weary. This is evident from the latest research by the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

Almost all countries are pessimistic

During the course of the Ukrainian war, the ECFR conducted several investigations. They document how Europeans’ attitudes towards the war have changed and with it the public discourse about the war.

The Europeans’ first reaction was fear. According to a June 2022 poll, many Europeans were in favor of a quick resolution to the conflict, even if it meant giving up territory to Ukraine.

A year later, polls showed that the successes of the Ukrainian army and the show of American leadership had changed public perception in Europe. Unlike many in the South, a majority of Europeans were now willing to support Ukraine until Kiev regained all its territory.

As a result of Ukraine’s disappointing counter-offensive and declining support in Western capitals, this optimism appears to be evaporating.

Europeans are pessimistic about the outcome of the war. On average, just under 10 percent of Europeans in the twelve countries surveyed believe that Ukraine will win. Nearly twice as many people expect Russia to win. This weak confidence in Ukraine's chances of victory can be observed across Europe.

Poland, Portugal and Sweden are the most optimistic countries. But even there, only about 17 percent of respondents believe Ukraine will win; in Sweden, 19 percent also believe that Russia will win.

The support continues

Europeans no longer really believe in a Ukrainian victory – but that doesn't mean they don't want Europe to support Ukraine.

Respondents in three countries – Poland, Portugal and Sweden – were clearly in favor of supporting Ukraine in regaining its territory. In five other countries – Austria, Greece, Hungary, Italy and Romania – people are more likely to prefer their governments pressure Kiev into accepting a deal.

Moreover, on average, only 29 percent of Europeans believe that the EU has played a positive role in the war in Ukraine. 37 percent believe it has played a negative role.

Ukrainians are still welcome, Arabs are not

The Gaza Strip also became a war zone in October 2023. The ECFR also included this new crisis in the survey questionnaire and asked how threatening Europeans consider migrants from different parts of the world.

Migrants from the Middle East are seen as a major threat by many Europeans surveyed, while migrants from Africa are also seen as threatening.

Ukrainians, on the other hand, are generally viewed positively or at least neutrally, similar to people from other EU member states.

A third of Europeans surveyed also believe that the war in Ukraine has a greater impact on their country and Europe than the war in Gaza. As for the future of the entire world, the majority of respondents, about 60 percent, think the two wars will have an equal impact.

Less solidarity if the US no longer supports Ukraine

Two elections are coming up in 2024 that could further change the world's security architecture: in June, the Europeans will elect the European Parliament and in November, the Americans can decide who will be their next president.

A majority of European voters would be disappointed if Donald Trump wins the US elections in November. Even in Hungary – by far the most Trump-friendly country surveyed by the ECFR – only 28 percent of participants would be happy if Trump returns.

But what if Trump actually became US president again and the US stopped supporting Ukraine?

The survey shows that European citizens are not in a particularly heroic mood: solidarity is said to be declining. After a US withdrawal, only a minority of Europeans would support greater European support for Ukraine.