Two years of war – military expert Ralph D. Thiele on Ukraine’s chances of success and the danger for Europe: “The front is crumbling – there is a threat of implosion”

In the beginning there was a lie. Russian President Vladimir Putin (71) continually claimed that the gathering of 150,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border was just an exercise. On February 24, 2022, at 4 a.m. Swiss time, this lie was cruelly exposed. From the north, south and east he called for an invasion of the neighboring country to the west.

He also lied to his own people: he called the war a “special military operation” designed to liberate Ukraine from the Nazis. In fact, the Russian ruler’s goal is to first capture the neighboring country and then at least restore the old Soviet empire.

The shock worldwide was great. In Europe, the Russian army was expected to overrun the neighboring country within days. Not even close. The approximately 60 kilometer long military convoy of Kremlin troops got stuck just before Kiev. Since the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of the conflict in the Donbas in 2014, the Ukrainians had greatly increased their military preparedness, as evidenced by the repulsion of the attackers.

While the Russians had to retreat north, their comrades in the west and south struck even harder. Their brutality became apparent on April 2, 2022, when the Butscha massacre was discovered. Here the invaders tortured and slaughtered more than 450 people.

Other important stops for the Russians were the capture of Mariupol and Kherson. The counter-offensive that the Ukrainians launched with Western weapons in early summer 2023 did not achieve the desired success. After all, the Ukrainian army managed to keep Russian soldiers away from Kiev and Kharkiv and to recapture Kherson and other areas during the two years of war.

The resistance of the attacked country is enormous. This obviously includes the weapons supplied, but also President Volodymyr Zelensky (46), who can motivate his army to fight and the West to help. Ralph D. Thiele (70), chairman of the German Political-Military Association and president of EuroDefense Germany, summarized: “The clever resistance of the first hours and days shocked the enemy, gave confidence to its own population and inspired the morale of the enemy. his own soldiers.”

In addition to the successes in the defense of the capital and the breakthrough at Kharkiv, the former director of education of the Bundeswehr Command Academy mentions two other important events: the continued weakening of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea with the sinking of the flagship “Moskva” and the Starlink supported communications in the first weeks. Starlink is a satellite network operated by Elon Musk’s (52) space company SpaceX that gives Ukrainians access to the internet even in remote locations.

The resistance has led to disputes on the Russian side. The head of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin (†62), marched menacingly towards Moscow with his mercenaries, but eventually turned towards Belarus. A few weeks later he died in a plane crash.

Criticism of Zelensky has increased recently. In an internal power struggle, he dismissed the popular army chief Valeri Saluschni (50) a few weeks ago and replaced him with Olexander Sirski (58). Thiele also identifies strategic mistakes: “The Ukrainian president overestimates the symbolic retention of strategically unimportant places like Bakhmut and sacrifices urgently needed, high-quality combat power elsewhere.”

Moreover, Selenski’s constant presence in the international media is also counterproductive. Thiele: “The media’s continued exaggeration of its own claims emboldens skeptics at home and abroad and distracts from urgently needed, holistic strategic and operational considerations.” A kind of ‘hand-to-mouth war’ has developed, with international support increasingly drying up.

Ukraine has suffered some setbacks in recent weeks, such as the capture of Avdiivka by the Russians last weekend. The Ukrainians are running low on ammunition, while Moscow is receiving drones from Iran, ammunition from North Korea and at least production machinery from China. The Kremlin relies on attrition through long-range shelling of centers.

“Ukraine is under pressure in many dimensions: land, sea, air, cyber, space, politics and society,” Thiele said. Western countries have supplied a lot of material, but this also leads to problems. Thiele: “Logistics is overwhelmed by a nightmare of weapon systems.”

While Western countries cut back on arms supplies, the praised heroes are also growing tired of war, says Thiele. At the same time, Russia is preparing for a long, exhausting war in all dimensions and with a war economy. Thiele warns: “The front is crumbling. There is a danger of an implosion.”

How many victims the war has claimed so far can only be estimated. Outside observers estimate a total of 500,000 deaths and injuries. According to the UNHCR, 13.7 million Ukrainians have left their country and 6.4 million have returned home. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) speaks of 23,000 missing persons.

There is currently a stalemate on the front with a small advantage for the Russians. To remain successful against the attackers, Ukraine depends on fresh new human resources and weapons supplies. In the US, $60 billion is still blocked. It is unclear whether they will be released.

According to Thiele, Ukraine also needs a targeted influx of new technologies. The expert speaks, among other things, about swarms of interconnected drones, some of which explore targets and others transport bombs. Electronic warfare must also be expanded.

According to Thiele, not only international deliveries are important. The focus is also on “robust capabilities of NATO and its member states”. If Donald Trump (77) were re-elected US president in November, NATO could be weakened. Trump has not spoken well about NATO during his time in office and has threatened in recent days to abandon NATO countries that have not yet invested enough in their own military.

In recent weeks, several European leaders have sounded the alarm and warned of an expansion of the war to European NATO countries. Thiele urges calm: “We Europeans should not exaggerate the war cries, because in principle they are only used to overcome past criminal shortcomings in the defense sector.”

Instead of an expansion of the war, Thiele expects a stressful period of hybrid attacks from Russia, China and Islamic actors. Thiele: “This will put pressure on our prosperity and cause our countries to fall backwards in the global value chain.”

For Thiele it is clear that an early end to the war is in the interests of the European states and also in the interests of Ukraine. Thiele: “We therefore need targeted foreign policy initiatives to end the conflict.”