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It was a news item that dominated all coverage of Russia this weekend: “Navalny is dead.” Russia’s best-known opposition figure, Alexei Navalny, reportedly collapsed while walking and subsequently died, Russian prison authorities announced on Friday afternoon.

No one believes this reasoning. Neither the Navalny supporters, who have since demonstrated in Russia and been arrested en masse, nor the Western media, in which experts have put forward numerous theories about the real cause of death. All with the same conclusion: the Russian state is responsible for this death.

One of these experts is Ulrich Schmid, professor of Eastern European Studies at the University of St.Gallen. He says what other current events in and around Russia are linked to Navalny’s death – and are a sign of Russia’s pursuit of great power.

The upcoming Russian elections

According to Schmid, the timing of Navalny’s death comes at an interesting time. Just before the Russian presidential elections. This will take place from March 15 to 17. “These presidential elections are of course a farce,” says Schmid.

Vladimir Putin’s time was effectively up. But in 2020, he had the Russian constitution rewritten so that he could remain president for two more terms, until 2036.

Schmid’s prediction: “Putin will be re-elected with at least 80 percent of the vote and there will be a turnout of at least 70 percent.” In 2018, Russian election authorities announced Putin’s victory with 77 percent of the vote and 68 percent turnout. Putin wants even better results in this year’s elections. This is to show that the population is behind him – and especially behind the war of aggression against Ukraine.

Putin needs legitimacy for the war in Ukraine. Because according to Schmid, the end is not yet in sight. Maybe not even for decades. In the field of war, Ukraine and Russia actually face the same problems: too few soldiers, too few weapons, too little ammunition. Russia has received strong support with ammunition supplies from North Korea since last year. “A victory for one side or the other is still not foreseeable,” says Schmid.

Russia needs more soldiers. And, Schmid suspects, a second partial mobilization will probably be ordered after the elections. In 2022, after the first partial mobilization, a shock wave went through Russian society. An overwhelming election victory for Putin should nip any feelings of protest in the bud.

Fear of “conditions like in Belarus”

Why is election turnout so important in a country where election results can be fabricated? “The purpose of the presidential election is not to select a candidate, but to prove that Russia stands behind Putin,” says Schmid. Putin therefore wants a high turnout. This is indeed fake. But the Kremlin must tread carefully with this forgery. “Otherwise there is a risk of circumstances like those in Belarus in 2020.”

After President Alexander Lukashenko announced his re-election with a utopian 80 percent of the vote, thousands of Belarusians took to the streets against election fraud. Lukashenko responded with extreme brutality, crushing the protests, having demonstrators arrested and disappearing; this was the only way he could regain control of the situation.

Instability at home, such as in Belarus, is the last thing Putin wants, Schmid said. He has no election manifesto. His only election promise to his people is that the status quo will continue to exist. “And so far he has been able to deliver on this promise of normality – despite the war in Ukraine.”

Nawanly’s death: parallels with 1918

A man who at least resembled an opposition figure would have been Boris Nadezhdin. He openly spoke out against Putin’s war against Ukraine – and received a surprising amount of popular support. However, too much.

“The Russian election authority excluded Nadezhdin from the elections for petty reasons,” Schmid said. The Kremlin wants to demonstrate again during these presidential elections: Putin has no alternative.

And with Navalny’s death, it is now clear to everyone: Putin will have no alternative even in the future. “With Navalny’s death, the Kremlin has deprived the Russian opposition of the last ray of hope.”

Schmid draws parallels with the Russian past. In 1918, the Bolsheviks under Lenin murdered the entire Tsarist family to deprive the supporters of the monarchy of the last hope of restoration of the old regime. Without a Tsar and without an heir to the throne, there can no longer be a Tsarist empire. And without Navalny, there is no one left with such a convincing charisma who could transform Russia into a democratic constitutional state.

Russian nuclear weapons in space

The news of Nawanly’s death comes the same week that another headline is circulating: Russia is working on nuclear space weapons. This is what the American media write, referring to information from the American Secret Service. The target of these nuclear weapons should be satellites that we all rely on every day: for GPS, internet, communications – in short, everything that the digital world is connected to. An anti-satellite nuclear weapon could plunge the world into chaos.

Moscow has already denied the rumor. But Ulrich Schmid also says:

Using them would amount to a mega-hacker attack, because so many technologies, entire sectors of the economy and countries depend on the satellites.

“Russia is not building these weapons primarily to actually use them,” Schmid says. “But mainly to demonstrate his power.” Putin wants to be a nuclear power in four dimensions: on land, in water, in the air – and now also in space.

Russia is thus expanding its threat at all levels: at home with Navalny’s death, in neighboring countries with the war in Ukraine, and globally with space weapons. Everything with one goal: “Putin wants to use military force to ensure that Russia has a say in every decision of global importance. He doesn’t care that he is destroying the fundamental values ​​of the United Nations – namely securing world peace.