The US no to aid to Ukraine shows what would happen to Europe if Trump 2.0 Israel calls on the head of UNRWA to resign – the night update

It is currently the most discussed question in Brussels and the European capitals: what should we be prepared for when Donald Trump returns to the US executive chairmanship in November?

The US Senate gave a preview of this this week. Under pressure from Donald Trump, Republicans refused to agree to further financial support for Ukraine totaling $60 billion. US President Joe Biden accused his predecessor of sabotage. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk denounced that the great Republican former president Ronald Reagan was turning in his grave.

Although the first vote will likely be followed by others soon, this is a strong signal from Washington: Donald Trump can no longer be expected to receive support from America. Everyone should have understood that by now.

Trump says he won’t defend his allies

In fact, the first four Trump years, from 2017 to 2021, were an unprecedented rollercoaster ride for Europeans.

Trump’s appearances at NATO are unforgettable, where he trampled like an elephant through the china shop and did not shy away from physical violence when a prime minister blocked his way to the spotlight. While he only hinted at this behind closed doors, he says openly today: he would not defend Europe’s NATO partners against an attack by Russia.

This must be shocking. Is history’s most successful defense alliance on the verge of collapse?

Ronja Kempin, security expert at the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) in Berlin, does not believe Trump would leave NATO. This is also because such a decision requires formal approval from Congress, which remains strongly pro-NATO today. But what if Trump decides to withdraw 100,000 American soldiers from Europe? What if he withdraws the nuclear shield over Europe? Europe is not prepared for these questions, according to Kempin.

Trump 2.0 poses an acute danger to Ukraine, as evidenced by the vote on financial aid. Trump promises to make a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war “within 24 hours” over the heads of the Ukrainians. This would not only be at the expense of the attacked country. But also at the expense of Europe. If Ukraine loses the war, Putin is more likely to attack other countries.

For example, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Why not? After all, Trump assured that he would do nothing.

Security expert Kempin: “Everyone knows that the Europeans cannot close the security gap that an American failure will cause.” Europe simply does not have the resources to do this: the “turning point” announced by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is happening gradually at best. Kempin: “We do more, but just more of the same.”

Contrary to what is necessary, Europe remains a small state. Everyone is only looking for themselves. Especially when it comes to the purchase of weaponry. The years under Biden were not used sufficiently to make up for the shortcomings.

“Trump is an agent of chaos” – uncertainty brings risks

But Trump 2.0 would also plunge Europe into economic turbulence. “His protectionism is his trademark,” says Rebecca Christie of the Brussels think tank Bruegel.

The political scientist expects that Trump can make good on his announcement and impose a general tariff surcharge of 10 percent on European goods. It would be a continuation of his infamous “America First” policy. Only this time there is war and Europeans are more dependent than ever on intact trade relations with America.

When it comes to China, Biden has also taken a hard line. But Trump will likely go a step further, at least rhetorically. With incalculable consequences for the world situation. The greatest danger is Trump’s impulsive unpredictability: “Bad political decisions are one thing. You can respond to that. But Trump is an agent of chaos. “That is much worse,” says Bruegel expert Christie.

Trump 2.0 could also promote chaos in European domestic politics. Whether it is the AfD in Germany, Marine Le Pen in France or Viktor Orbán in Hungary: many right-wing populist parties in Europe see Trump as an ally. They are waging the same cultural battle against the ‘liberal elites’ and the ‘globalists’. Right-wing populists in Europe would rejoice and feel strengthened by Trump’s election.

And the sympathy is mutual: Trump stated in his first term that he thought Brexit was a good thing. In the EU, this was seen as an invasive and direct attack on the community project that has been building for more than seventy years.

According to political scientist Rebecca Christie, herself an American, Trump’s rejection of the EU also has to do with his narcissistic personality: “Trump is always only about himself. He treats anything that goes beyond his ego, whether it is the EU, the Constitution or any other bigger picture, with contempt.”

Can Trump be the ‘salutary shock’ that Europe needs now?

One person who is already ringing the alarm bells in Brussels is David McAllister, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the EU Parliament. In 2017, Trump’s election surprised Europeans: “We were all betting on Hillary Clinton. When Donald Trump was elected, there was a state of shock,” says Mc Allister. Under no circumstances should something like this happen again.

Of course, he also fears especially for the transatlantic partnership within NATO. But an escalation of the trade dispute is also raising concerns for the European Commission boss’s closest confidant, Ursula von der Leyen, who holds both a British and German passport.

McAllister would rather not hear about a “beneficial shock” that Trump could give the Europeans and ultimately force them to become more independent: “We have to do our homework, there’s no doubt about that. But the Americans are our most important allies and they must remain so.”

It is in the EU’s own interest that the US does not withdraw from the multilateral organization. Other players like China would simply wait to fill the void. That is why we must prepare now and establish contacts with the future decision makers in a possible Trump administration who care about the transatlantic relationship.

The only question is whether they will still be there. Unlike his first presidency, when Trump surrounded himself with people who wanted to protect him against the biggest stupidities, this time he only wants to gather unconditional loyalists around him. Trump’s campaign team and think tanks close to him should already be drawing up long lists to fire thousands of US officials and replace them with people vetted for pure Trump sentiment. The extent to which Europe could even develop constructive working relationships with a potential Trump administration remains questionable.

For political scientist Rebecca Christie, however, something else is crucial: security, climate change, geopolitics – these are all challenges that arise for Europe regardless of the US election outcome. Europe must therefore decide how it wants to respond to this: accept the challenges now or continue to muddle through? Christie: “Trump plays no role at all. He just doesn’t care about Europe.” (aargauerzeitung.ch)