After the Communist Party Congress, one thing is certain: President Xi Jinping (69) has been able to further expand his power within the party and is likely to be elected president for a third time in the spring. In the seven-member party committee, the most powerful party body in the country, Xi has removed the last few party officials who did not support him.
What are the consequences of the party’s decisions? With the confirmation as chairman, there should be practically nothing standing in the way of Xi’s lifetime rule. So “the authoritarian shutdown of the People’s Republic of China must continue,” said China expert Ralph Weber (47) of the University of Basel.
Persecution of minorities, expansion of control over one’s own citizens: “The totalitarian tendencies with the intervention of the party state in all areas of life seem to be solidifying,” says Weber.
“Escalation possible at any time”
It can definitely get inconvenient for Taiwan too. Weber: “An attack on Taiwan is hardly imminent, but such a scenario is likely to become increasingly likely in the coming years.” Depending on further global developments, a surprising escalation is possible at any time.
With the strengthening of Xi’s power, cooperation with Beijing also becomes more delicate. “Discussions on Europe’s relationship with China will continue and will give rise to additional polemics. It becomes even more complicated for many actors to just continue working with actors in China in the usual way.”
This is apparent, for example, from the criticized planned visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (64) with a business delegation to Beijing. Such actions would be observed much more closely. Weber: “You must therefore be able to motivate why you continue to seek cooperation with such a regime.”
The situation is now becoming more uncertain for foreign investors. “In the political report at the party congress, Xi Jinping made it clear that while there is still a desire to trade globally and attract investment, the focus must increasingly be on the domestic market,” said Ralph Weber. “Good political analysis is needed to continue economic relations – but also increasingly clear exit strategies.”
New treatment required
As a result of the strengthening of power, the chairman of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), Manfred Weber (50), has called on the EU to change course towards China. “China is changing face,” said the German. The EU must adapt to this and “put aside its naivety”. Weber demanded that EU countries not further increase their dependence on China for raw materials, but should find new partners.
Ralph Weber is also convinced that there should be a discussion in the West about a new way of dealing with Beijing. Weber: “This discussion should take place somewhere between the demonization and romanticization of China with the most factual information possible and with an awareness of the fundamental political differences with the Chinese party state.”