“Quality gap smaller”: Moscow and Kiev have learned these lessons from the war

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After the attack on Ukraine, the Russian army failed to achieve a victory in just a few days, as President Vladimir Putin (71) had thought. Instead, the troops made a series of mistakes that cost them weapons and soldiers. But you learn from mistakes. The series of embarrassing accidents at the front is over, according to Australian ex-general and military strategist Mick Ryan in an analysis in the magazine Foreign Affairs. According to him, Russia will have a strategic advantage by 2024.

After the attack, Kiev managed to develop new fighting methods in a very short time. “Russia, on the other hand, was groping in the dark: a big, arrogant and clumsy bear that was too confident of a quick victory,” Ryan said. But the tide has now turned, he explains.

“The quality gap between Ukraine and Russia has narrowed,” the military analyst said. Ukraine’s great advantage remains its military structure. Thanks to her, new techniques and weapons are quickly put into use. However, Ukraine cannot ensure that these techniques are applied everywhere.

Elite forces support poorly trained soldiers

Setbacks are rarely reported on the Russian side. But if lessons are learned from mistakes, they can be systematically implemented across the military and defense industry. In recent months, Russia has captured territory, especially in eastern Ukraine.

There were no more uncoordinated, spontaneous seizures, but rather timed seizures. At the beginning of the war, Russia deployed battalions consisting of air and ground troops. But these were too small and too weak, causing many losses. Last year, the Russian army combined elite troops with poorly trained infantry.

This causes a so-called “meat storm” to attack. “Waves of poorly trained available forces that can overwhelm and exhaust Ukrainian soldiers before more talented Russian forces arrive,” Ryan describes this approach that Wagner fighters have developed. Ukraine no longer hits targeted troops with its precision missiles, as they are spread across the field.

Russia expanded its defense lines in late 2022 to early 2023. Any attempts by Ukraine to break through the lines – despite excellent training – had little effect.

Russia has stockpiled drones and cluster munitions

Ukraine has trained excellent drone pilots, but Ryan says even that is of little use today. “Today, Moscow is superior to Ukraine when it comes to drones and cluster munitions.” Putin is circumventing sanctions by sourcing spare parts abroad. Vehicles are protected by armor that cannot be destroyed by drones. According to Ryan, improved drone operation was the main reason why Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed.

The decisive advantage of the Russian army: the state has understood how best to use its resources. According to Ryan, this is “the most important thing for winning wars.” Over the years, Moscow could build a more effective and modern military force. Ukraine was barely able to regain anything last year and even lost additional territories to Russia.

The Ukrainians have also further improved their skills. Long range attacks have become much better. “Over the past year, Ukraine has developed the capability to conduct additional long-range strikes against Russian airfields, defense factories and energy infrastructure,” Ryan describes. And the maritime fleet has also come into Ukraine’s crosshairs. More and more Russian fleets are sinking to the bottom of the sea thanks to maritime drones.

Attacks on Kharkov planned for March

The problem, according to the expert, is: “As in other areas, Russia will likely adapt to Ukrainian developments.” It is urgent that Ukraine learns to implement the front’s conclusions at a broad level and increase the exchange of information. Before Russia can learn lessons from the battlefield, Ukraine must exploit vulnerabilities.

Time is running out. “The Russian Federation plans to capture the entire Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as part of the Kharkov region up to the Oskil River, by March 2024,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies said. This is no coincidence: the presidential elections also take place in March. As Forbes writes, Russian forces have already begun operations in Kupyansk.

Source: Blick