How O’Neill’s possible election could affect Ireland and Northern Ireland Trump’s election fraud attempt will start later than planned

Northern Ireland faces a historic vote in the regional parliament. This Saturday, Michelle O’Neill, a politician who actually aims for unification with EU member Ireland, will be elected leader of government for the first time in the British province’s 103-year history. The elections also end the political crisis in the former civil war region – exactly two years after the fall of the previous government. O’Neill’s Catholic republican party Sinn Fein received the most votes for the first time in the most recent regional elections in May 2022 – but cannot freely choose its governing partner.

Northern Ireland’s balanced political system requires the strongest forces from both sectarian camps to form a unity government. This is laid down in the Good Friday Agreement, which ended the decades-long civil war in 1998.

However, the largest Protestant party, the DUP, which advocates political union with Britain and has previously provided the head of government, refused to cooperate. She ultimately called for an end to all customs controls between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, which had been agreed by the British central government in London and the EU after Brexit. Only after long negotiations did the DUP agree to a new document a few days ago. In future, internal UK controls should be kept to a minimum. The Times newspaper wrote that the agreement between London and the DUP was largely symbolic.

Sinn Fein sees the upcoming historic inauguration of 47-year-old O’Neill as a major step towards its political goals. A united Ireland is ‘within reach’, Sinn Fein president Mary Lou McDonald has said. The party once seen as the political arm of the terrorist organization IRA is also the strongest force in the Republic of Ireland. However, two liberal-conservative parties in a coalition prevent participation in the government.

Surveys show there is great skepticism on the Northern Irish side. The Irish Times newspaper found at the end of 2023 that only 30 percent would be in favor of unification in a referendum, but 51 percent would be against it. In Ireland, approval is almost two-thirds. In principle, the Irish leadership is also aiming for a merger. “I believe we are moving towards unification, I believe there will be a united Ireland in my lifetime,” Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said in September 2023, drawing sharp criticism from London.

The demographics favor the Republicans. For the first time, there are more Catholics living in Northern Ireland than Protestants, according to a 2021 census. It does not look like this will change again for the time being. The area was explicitly settled in 1921 after the Irish Civil War as a home for those who wanted to remain part of Britain – and the majority of them were Protestant. Experts believe that this will make the Unionists insist on their positions all the more intensely. There were riots in Belfast and other cities in protest against the special Brexit rules. Loyalist militants first evicted passengers from buses and then set the vehicles on fire.

DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson now sees himself as the winner who has represented the interests of his voters with the British government. But he admitted that he had not achieved all his goals. It is not yet known how the European Commission, which reached an agreement with the British government on customs controls, will assess the new document. Actually, you should agree to serious changes.

The aim of the previous regulation was to avoid a ‘hard border’ between Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland after Brexit, so as not to spark new conflicts. But the implementation sometimes led to shortages of food, medicine and garden products. Pets were no longer allowed to be taken on holiday to Great Britain. Loyalists feared that the controls would jeopardize the union with Britain.

Most parties in Northern Ireland welcomed the DUP’s return to power-sharing. But hardcore union members are not convinced. Both the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party and influential loyalist politicians and bloggers are criticizing DUP leader Donaldson’s sellout. In reality, Northern Ireland remains dependent on the laws of the EU, to whose internal market and customs union the region de facto belongs even after Brexit. Experts warn that Donaldson must be careful not to further splinter the unionist camp. (sda/dpa)