What a Middle East Peace Plan Could Look Like Trump’s trial for attempted election fraud will start later than planned

Nearly four months have passed since Hamas terrorists entered Israel from the Gaza Strip and carried out the worst mass murder of Jews since the Nazi Holocaust. More than 200 hostages were taken to Gaza. Shortly afterwards, the Israeli ‘revenge campaign’ began with the aim of destroying Hamas once and for all.

The preliminary results are dismal. During a ceasefire in November, 105 hostages were exchanged for 240 captured Palestinians. But since then the war has continued unabated, especially in the south of the Gaza Strip. A large number of Hamas fighters were killed, but the Israeli army also complained of heavy losses.

Hamas’ terror infrastructure was damaged but not completely destroyed. Rockets are still flying towards Israel. And although the Palestinian aid agency UNRWA has fallen into disrepute, the situation of the approximately two million refugees is becoming increasingly desperate. The Gaza Strip is a field of rubble with no end in sight.

Fire sources in the region

But that’s not all: the conflict still threatens to escalate into a major fire. In the north, Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah are engaged in clashes. The Houthi militia in Yemen continues to attack cargo ships and disrupt global trade. And in Jordan, three American soldiers were killed in an attack by Iraqi militias.

US President Joe Biden has vowed retaliation, but there is a risk of full-scale conflict with Iran. Because Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and the militias in Iraq are supported by Tehran. The mullahs’ regime does not seem interested in escalation, but all it needs is a spark to set the region on fire.

Just a beautiful dream?

Even if this does not happen, the question arises as to how the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict will continue after Hamas is destroyed. The US, Europe and Arab states are urgently promoting the implementation of a two-state solution, but reservations in Israel are significant after the Hamas terror.

The NZZ recognizes that the two-state solution is “morally, economically and politically the superior vision for the Palestinian territories.” This is the only way sustainable peace can be imagined: “But its realization will remain a beautiful dream for a long time.” In the best case, a return to the situation before October 7, 2023 would be possible.

Nested boxes

But not everyone wants to accept this bleak prospect. Research by the British ‘Economist’ shows that there are activities going on in the background aimed at finding a sustainable, feasible solution. The risk of failure is high, but there is a chance for “a new economic and security architecture” in the Middle East.

You have to imagine the problem as nested boxes, says The Economist. The key to ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is therefore the two-state solution. The key to this is normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia. This requires an end to the Gaza war, and the key to that is a hostage agreement.

There is talk of a hostage deal

The latter is apparently the subject of intensive negotiations. CIA director William Burns speaks a week ago in Paris with representatives of Egypt, Qatar and Israel. The plan therefore calls for a ceasefire of up to two months. Hamas would release most of the approximately 100 Israeli hostages believed to be alive.

They would be exchanged again for Palestinian prisoners. The reservations in Israel are just as great as the pressure to bring the hostages home. The Israelis released in November report traumatic experiences. Controversial Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again plays an ambiguous role.

Netanyahu’s double game

On Wednesday, he emphasized in a video message that he would not agree to a hostage deal “at any price.” The war will not end and “thousands of terrorists” will not be released. However, Netanyahu had earlier confirmed at a meeting with family members that every effort was being made to free the hostages.

Netanyahu’s popularity ratings are in the basement. A large portion of Israelis blame him for the October 7 terror. In new elections, his coalition with right-wing extremist settlers who advocate ‘voluntary emigration’ (i.e. expulsion) of Palestinians would lose their majority. As a result, he clings to power.

Shaky war cabinet

Netanyahu could benefit in the short term from the release of the hostages, but a longer ceasefire would also “open new opportunities” for his rivals, according to The Economist. This is especially true of ex-Chief of General Staff Benny Gantz, currently the most popular politician in Israel. He could leave the already shaky ‘war cabinet’ with Netanyahu.

For Gantz, the release of the remaining hostages is an absolute priority, as is for Gadi Eisenkot, another former army leader who is also a member of the war cabinet. The enemy could “then be killed.” Eisenkot’s word carries weight because he lost a son and a nephew in the Gaza war.

Saudis are open to peace

With a “shake-up” in Israeli politics and a ceasefire in Gaza, Saudi Arabia could also be involved, according to the concept outlined by the “Economist”. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s autocrat and modernizer, was apparently on the verge of making peace with Israel last fall.

It was a possible motive for the Hamas terror attack. The door does not appear to be completely closed. Observers have noted that, unlike in other countries in the region, pro-Hamas rallies are barely tolerated in Saudi Arabia. “Normalization” with Israel could also reduce Iran’s ominous influence.

However, the Saudis have emphasized that this will not happen without a two-state solution. It is the last and most difficult part of this “puzzle”. What is needed is a new Palestinian leadership, without Hamas and without the corrupt Palestinian Authority. And Israel will want to enforce its security interests without compromise.

The US plays a key role in this peace scenario. Implementing it is like running a marathon combined with climbing an 8,000 meter peak. Even the “economist” admits that three conditions must be met for this to happen: a new Israeli government, a new Palestinian leadership – and a second term for Joe Biden.