A Russian warplane has crashed twice in a short period of time without being shot down. This happened yesterday in the Russian city of Irkutsk. A Su-30 crashed into a wooden house. Yesterday’s accident is said to have suffocated the pilots during a test flight.

At least 13 people were killed in the crash in the Russian city of Yeysk last week, when a plane of the same type crashed into a nine-story apartment building.

Frans Osinga, professor of war studies, says in the NOS Radio 1 News that the cause of the recent crashes is difficult to determine. “In the first crash it would have been engine failure. That can happen, but you have to remember that it can happen again after such a short time. It is said that the maintenance status of many aircraft is poor.” And the quality and supply of spare parts also leaves a lot to be desired.”

Western sanctions also played a role, says Osinga. “The armaments industry and the aviation industry are suffering from the sanctions because the necessary high-quality technology is not being supplied. This will ‘cannibalize’ planes to get parts to keep other planes in the air. In addition, the pilots receive few flying hours and little training. chain of aviation security.”

According to the professor, these problems have existed for some time. “The rot in the system dates back much earlier. It’s a negligence of recent years. Corruption in the Russian armed forces is a well-known phenomenon. Normally it’s hard to spot, but during a war it shows.”

Russia still uses relatively little air force, but it is increasing slightly, says Osinga. “I am referring to the Iranian drones, but also to the firing of long-range missiles by bombers and fighter jets. We will see that from the beginning of October, also through the new commander. The attacks target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. new and really touches society.”

The question, however, is whether it’s effective, Osinga says. “Had they done this from the beginning of the war, it would have had a much greater strategic impact on Zelenskyy’s decision-making. Now you see how many drones and cruise missiles are being shot down by anti-aircraft defenses in Ukraine. to.” rehabilitate many of the power plants. Yesterday 30 percent had already been renovated.”

No concessions to Russia

Ukraine still seems to be winning at the top. “All these long-range missiles fired do not significantly change the position on the front line. So you now have a strategic campaign against Ukraine and you have a front line where the fighting is taking place on the ground. They appear to be separated.”

This new campaign is not expected to have any impact on Zelenskyj’s strategy. “Also because he knows that the number of cruise missiles from Russia is decreasing, there may be a few hundred more.”

The drones are imprecise and their trajectory predictable, which makes them interceptable, says the professor. “Zelensky will be impressed by the humanitarian damage, but that will not force him to make concessions to Russia.”

Advance from Kherson

Ukraine observed complete radio silence around the offensive in Kherson, Osinga said. “We knew they were advancing from the northeast, and now they would be coming from the southwest. It is believed that they are actually much closer to Kherson than we read in official reports.”

According to Osinga, the situation around the Kachovka dam on the Dnieper is becoming very tense. “There are fears it will eventually be destroyed, flooding a large area with potentially thousands of casualties.”

Osinga suspects that this will also slow down the Ukrainian advance. “That’s probably Russia’s intention too. Kherson is one of the few big cities in Russian hands, it’s a major port city and Ukraine is very keen to get it back.”