Experts expect a shift to the right: the EU is facing its biggest challenge

Research predicts gains for extremes

A recently published study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) paints a picture of a European election that not only reflects this discontent, but could also raise profound questions about the future of the EU. The institute predicts a “serious shift to the right” for the June 6 to 9 elections. After the election date, the EU Parliament could not only be more right-wing, but also anti-European.

With the expected shift to the right and the rise of Eurosceptic forces, the EU is at a crossroads that could have far-reaching consequences for its member states and citizens. The question therefore arises: are we on the eve of the collapse of the European Union?

The ECFR expects the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), the centrist Renew Europe (RE) and the Greens (G/EFA) to lose seats in June. The more radical left-wing faction and especially the populist right, including the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the right-wing extremist party Identity and Democracy (ID), could make gains.

Political scientist Decker fears that such a shift in political forces will test the EU. One of the biggest problems: “With growth to the right of the EPP it will be difficult to further develop the EU.” Such a development makes the likelihood that populist factions will sabotage decisions of the EU Parliament more realistic.

Populists bicker among themselves

Is the European Union nearing its end? According to Decker, it is too early for praise. The populist forces in the EU Parliament are increasing, but at the same time they are confronted with a dilemma: the extreme right is very good at fighting itself.

After the June elections, three of the EU’s largest parliamentary delegations are likely to consist of right-wing populists – probably Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (47), Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (55) and Alice Weidel’s AfD. But things are simmering between these parties: every chef works according to a different recipe.

On Thursday, Le Pen took aim at the AfD after partisan and internal party radicals in Germany discussed a “master plan” for the deportation of millions of Germans with a migrant background. Le Pen, who has been trying to appear more moderate for years, said she was against “remigration” and wondered whether her party could still sit alongside the AfD in the ID faction.

And two years ago, an attempt to include MPs from the right-wing Hungarian Fidesz of Viktor Orbán (60) in the right-wing EU factions EKR or ID failed. The Hungarians are still on the political sidelines after their split from the European People’s Party.

What is the future for the EU?

Many political experts predict that gridlock in the EU Parliament will become the new normal. Not only because right-wing forces block the EU’s general decisions, but also because they sabotage each other.

According to Frank Decker, the European Union must find a way to bridge the looming political divide if it wants to maintain its ideals. Tensions and disagreements within the right-wing populist factions could, paradoxically, provide the EU with an opportunity to consolidate and renew itself – which it certainly needs.

Decker has clear ideas about what should be different in the EU: “Europe must assert itself better in the world. This also has to do with defense policy – ​​which the EU must discuss with all member states.” The second challenge: “Europe must once again achieve a simultaneity of expansion and deepening integration.”