Once again it is Erdogan’s turn: Sweden’s NATO application removes an important obstacle

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After the decision of parliament in Ankara, it is now up to him to complete the Turkish ratification of the so-called accession protocol with his signature. Surprisingly positive signals came Wednesday from the second big unknown on Sweden’s rocky road to NATO: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Sweden has been struggling for 20 months to obtain the necessary ratifications from all NATO countries to join the alliance like its Scandinavian neighbor Finland. 29 of the 31 allies have long since given their consent, except Turkey and Hungary.

Ankara’s main reason for this was that Sweden, from Turkey’s perspective, did not take sufficient action against “terrorist organizations”. Budapest objected to Swedish statements on the rule of law and corruption in the country.

Important step – nothing more, nothing less

At least one major hurdle has now been overcome: the Turkish parliament voted by a large majority in favor of Swedish membership of NATO on Tuesday evening. But despite the year-and-a-half-long feud, the celebrations in Stockholm remained muted.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Sweden has moved “one step closer” to NATO membership. Foreign Minister Tobias Billström warned that there is no longer any reason for Erdogan to wait.

It is unclear why the vote has now been placed on Parliament’s agenda. Possible concessions in the negotiations on arms transactions could have played a role behind the scenes, but so far nothing has been publicly announced in this regard.

Erdogan had conditioned his country’s approval on, among other things, the supply of fighter planes from the US, for which the necessary approval from the US Congress has not yet been obtained. Local elections across Turkey are scheduled for March 2024. Finalizing the deal earlier could play into the hands of Erdogan and his party.

The great unknown 1: When will Erdogan sign?

The dispute over Turkish approval has clearly demonstrated Erdogan’s political character. He weaves through negotiations and maintains good relations with the Kremlin, despite Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

When it came to Sweden, he repeatedly withdrew promises or added new demands to agreements, such as the supply of F-16 fighter jets.

This is also why Turkey’s approval of NATO should only be considered sealed once the accession protocol has been signed and transferred. Erdogan has not yet commented on his plan.

At NATO headquarters in Brussels it is hoped that Sweden’s accession can be sealed at a meeting of defense ministers on February 15. As was recently the case with Finland, a ceremonial ceremony involving the raising of the Swedish flag in front of NATO headquarters was likely to take place.

For now, however, no one wants to plan this publicly; Too often in recent months it had been hoped in vain that the admission process would be completed.

The Great Unknown 2: What is Hungary doing?

The big welcome party for the Swedes could also be canceled by another man who has repeatedly proven his stubbornness in the past: Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán.

Orban and his supporters have found a whole host of reasons for their anti-Sweden stance. They still accuse Kristersson of voting to block EU funds for Hungary at an EU summit in 2022 and of calling for the exclusion of her party Fidesz from the European party family EPP in 2019.

At the same time, Hungary has always maintained that it did not want to be the last country to ratify the treaty. Orban would find himself in exactly this situation if Erdogan signed immediately.

After a telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Orban reiterated in surprisingly clear words on Wednesday that his government supports Sweden’s NATO membership.

Orban said on the online platform.

Orban’s information did not clarify when exactly a vote could take place in Budapest. Normally, the next session of the Hungarian parliament would start on February 27. It remained unclear whether an unscheduled special session could take place in advance to ratify Sweden’s accession. (SDA)

Source: Blick