Russian Iskander missiles reach six times the speed of sound. They explode out of nowhere. An Iranian kamikaze drone flies relatively slowly and roars like a lawnmower. Everyone knows she’s coming.
But no one knows where it will end. “This is psychological terror and should be intentional. All means are suitable for Putin to defeat the enemy,” said Hubert Annen, lecturer in military psychology at the ETH Zurich Military Academy. As the Russians fall behind on the battlefield, they are ramping up terror, which could also lead to a new influx of refugees and further pressure on the West.
Drones can be crucial
But do drones also have a strategic use in addition to the psychological? Two years ago, Armenia and Azerbaijan were at war over the Nagorno-Karabakh Caucasus region. Azerbaijan emerged victorious, thanks in part to the use of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. According to Dominika Kunertova, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies, the unmanned aerial vehicles made it possible to control the airspace in the combat zone: the Azerbaijanis were free to reconnoiter and attack the Armenian positions.
The war in Ukraine is different. Nobody controls the airspace there. Many drones are shot down, even with pistols – according to Kunertova, a conventional drone lasts an average of seven days. Iranian products of the Shahed-136 type come in handy, Russia calls them Geran 2.
Relatively cheap
These drones are relatively cheap and fly more than 2000 kilometers. They attack in swarms, some breaching defenses and falling on civilians or critical energy infrastructure. But once their purpose is established, that cannot be changed: what is mobile escapes.
Therefore, the Shahed-136 is insignificant from a strategic point of view, argues Frank Sauer, head of research at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. In the Nagorno-Karabakh war, highly developed Israeli drones of the Harpy and Harop type were also used. The cheaper Iranian drone, on the other hand, consists of commercially available technology.
Sauer says: “That is characteristic of our time. Commercial technology is increasingly being used for military purposes. The best example is cyberspace.”