Is there hope for peace in Ukraine in Switzerland? Bern is working on an explosive summit at the Peace Formula Conference: 90 countries will discuss Ukraine today in Davos

The war in Ukraine continues unabated. Soldiers are dying on the eastern front, Russia is terrorizing cities across the country with rocket attacks. “Dozens of civilians die every day,” Federal Councilor and Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said in Davos on Sunday. And looking at the snowy landscape he said: “Winter in Ukraine is not the same winter as in Switzerland.”

Peace in Ukraine still seems far away. Russia is not taking any steps to withdraw from Ukraine – on the contrary. And Ukraine is determined to defend and regain the territory it is entitled to under international law.

Against this backdrop, delegations from 83 countries met in Davos on Sunday, a day before the start of the World Economic Forum (WEF), to discuss Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace formula. He made ten demands to end the war. For example, the complete withdrawal of Russian troops, ensuring the security of food and energy supplies and guarantees of lasting peace. These have already been discussed at three conferences in different countries, always without Russia. The fourth and final round of talks at the level of national security advisers took place under the co-chairmanship of Cassis and the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Yermak.

At a press conference early in the afternoon, Cassis gave a preliminary assessment. The content of this was modest: there was hardly any concrete progress towards peace in Ukraine. The foundation for talks on peace has been laid, Cassis said. He never tired of emphasizing that there was no alternative to dialogue. The large number of participating countries can set in motion an international dynamic that can contribute to solutions – also in other conflicts.

Without Russia there is no peace, says Cassis

Cassis has pointed out several times that it was not just a conference of Ukraine’s Western allies. The Global South was also represented with India, Brazil and South Africa, as well as Saudi Arabia.

Only: the war continues, but the discussions about the peace formula have ended. What’s next?

It is up to Ukraine to judge, Cassis said, but stated several times: “Without Russia there will be no peace.” However, it is impossible to say how and when Vladimir Putin, who is responsible for the war of aggression, could be involved in the peace efforts.

In this regard, China is crucial. The government in Beijing is close to Russian President Putin and at the same time has the political and economic power to influence him. The country did not participate in the discussion on Zelensky’s peace formula in Davos on Sunday. But conditions are favorable for China to take on an important role in the coming days.

Hoping for top meetings in Bern or Davos

On the sidelines of Cassis’ press conference, it was heard that efforts are being made at the diplomatic level to arrange a meeting between President Zelensky and Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Monday in Bern or Tuesday in Davos. Both are expected in Bern at the beginning of this week for talks with Federal President Viola Amherd. Zelenskyj and Li will appear at the WEF on Tuesday. So there would likely be several possibilities for a meeting of top politicians – although according to reports there was still no commitment from China on Sunday evening.

Of course, France could also play a role, as President Emmanuel Macron is also traveling to Davos. In the first months of the war, he personally committed himself to a quick end to the conflict and held long talks with Putin. It’s quite possible he now sees an opportunity to get involved again. His new Foreign Minister, Stéphane Séjourné, visited Kiev on Saturday on his first trip.

There is a lot of diplomatic activity in Kiev at the moment. That has not always been the case in recent months. The war in Eastern Europe has lost attention in the West. Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israeli civilians and Israel’s military assault in Gaza attracted significant public and political attention. In the US, Republicans are trying to cut off aid money to Ukraine.

A certain war-weariness is spreading in the West. In Switzerland too, it is far from certain that a billion-dollar reconstruction package proposed by Cassis will find a political majority.

The fact that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promised military aid worth £2.5 billion and signed a security deal during a visit to Kiev late last week is a ray of hope. But that won’t be enough for a military liberation effort in eastern Ukraine. Will this force Ukraine to the negotiating table?

The head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Yermak, did not want to know about this at a second press conference on Sunday evening: “Ukraine is alive, Ukraine is fighting, Ukraine will win the war.” Russia has the choice to continue the war, Russia can end it at any time. “We can’t do this, we have to fight.”

Meanwhile, Yermak reiterated that Ukraine is very interested in involving China in the discussions. “It is important for us that China is also at the table.” He was asked whether Zelensky would meet Prime Minister Li these days. “I don’t know our president’s agenda,” Jermak said. “Let’s see.” (bzbasel.ch)