US stops aid to Ukraine: can Europe defend itself against Russia alone?

According to French EU Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton (68), Trump told EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (65) at the WEF in Davos in 2020: “You must understand that we will never come to help and support you as Europe is being attacked.” Breton announced this this week.

Trump has also sharply criticized NATO in the past. There are fears he will leave the alliance to save money.

There are fears in Europe that Russian President Vladimir Putin (71) could attack other countries. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (63) says: “Dangers may be upon us at the end of this decade.” And Swedish Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin (38) warned last weekend: “War could break out in Sweden.”

Europe needs the US

Would European states be strong enough to defend themselves without the US? Military expert Marcel Berni (35) speaks of a hypothetical question. He says: “It is currently impossible to predict to what extent Europe could defend itself against Russia without American support.”

Political scientist Hubert Zimmermann (59), international relations expert at the University of Marburg, is more specific. According to him, emancipation from the US is still far away. He told the “Frankfurter Rundschau”: “Europe could not defend itself without the US.”

Given Putin’s threats, nuclear deterrence suddenly comes into play again. “But in these areas the EU is highly dependent on the US,” he says. US forces are far superior to European armies militarily, technologically and in terms of the operational capacity of their army. The dependence on Washington will continue for a long time – at least ten years.

Due to the threat throughout Europe, many countries are calling for rearmament. Thierry Breton calls for a European defense fund worth 100 billion euros. “There is war on our continent, we must re-arm,” he says.

Should Ukraine negotiate?

The Ukrainians will soon be hit hard by the lack of American aid. Marcel Berni says: “The US provided most of the material and ammunition and also coordinated Western aid. If this support ends, Europe will not be able to compensate.”

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), the main remaining group of active donors consists of countries such as Germany, Finland, Ireland, Croatia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Great Britain and Canada. .

If the United States permanently cuts aid, other countries will likely do the same, Berni estimates. “Ukraine would therefore lose its effectiveness. In the medium term, Kiev could even be forced to signal Putin’s willingness to negotiate,” Berni said.