The Iowa caucuses start on Monday: Why the Republican race is getting exciting again

Trump leads in Iowa – why Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis can still hope

Chiara Schlenz, foreign editor

Dear reader, welcome to Blick’s US election monitor. Starting today, my colleagues Samuel Schumacher, Guido Felder and I will keep you informed of the latest news about the American elections. You may be wondering now, “Isn’t this a little early? Will the elections not take place until November?” No!

Because these elections are about nothing less than the survival of the world’s oldest democracy. At least if you can believe the words of current President Joe Biden (81). At an election event last Friday, he said: “Donald Trump’s election campaign is about him, not about America. Not about you. (…) He is willing to sacrifice our democracy and put himself in power.”

But first things first…

Let’s hold off on the bad news and the fear of the destruction of American democracy. The American elections start on Monday with the first Republican primaries in the state of Iowa. The situation of the pig farmers and the corn fields – or rather the ‘Fields of Opportunities’ as the official slogan wants to sell us?

However, looking at this year’s primaries, I have to say: there aren’t many “opportunities” here. At least not for the Republican candidates Nikki Haley (51), Ron DeSantis (45) and Vivek Ramaswamy (38). For some, the race seems so lost that they are withdrawing their candidacy before the first primaries.

Only ex-president Donald Trump (77) actually has options. He leads Haley and DeSantis by miles. According to current information from “538” – a project that averages all surveys and which I consider very reputable – he has 51.3 percent approval among Iowans in Iowa. A number that has only been increasing since December – and is now difficult to catch up in any case. Far behind Trump is DeSantis with 17.2 percent and Haley follows him with 15.8 percent. Values ​​for both have been stagnant since the end of December. So should you congratulate Trump on his early coronation? Once again I have to say: No!

Iowa is unreliable

Because Iowa – apart from the metal band Slipknot of course – is known for one thing: its inability to elect the Republican presidential candidate. Would you like an example? Of the seven closely contested races since 1980, only two winners of the Iowa caucuses managed to receive so many votes in other states that they ultimately became the party’s official candidates. In 1996, that was Republican Bob Dole (1923-2021) – who ultimately lost to Democrat Bill Clinton (77). And George W. Bush (77) in 2001, who prevailed over Al Gore (75).

And Iowa can do something else: pull off big surprises in the primaries. A glimmer of hope for Haley and DeSantis? Yes, at least if they can do what former US senator and Republican primary candidate Rick Santorum (65) did in 2012.

In the predictions ahead of the Republican primaries in Iowa on January 3, 2012, Santorum was hovering in the single digits, well behind favorite Mitt Romney (76). Romney himself received around 20 percent support before the election, depending on the source. But then the surprise: Santorum beat Romney by a hair in Iowa – with 24.6 percent approval. Romney, who was previously confident of victory, received 24.5 percent of the vote.

But before DeSantis and Haley get too excited, there’s one more minor setback: the actual Republican presidential nominee was still the favorite, Romney.

“Trump vs. Biden” – already decided?

And what about the Democrats? They don’t start their primaries until February 3, namely in South Carolina. But there is actually less tension there. President Biden is clearly leading his challengers. Also in Iowa – currently at about 70 percent approval, as data from Emerson College shows. His opponents Marianne Williamson (71) and Dean Phillips (54) are at 5 percent and 1 percent respectively.

But Biden will have a tough time against Trump in Iowa if they meet in the actual election. Currently, only 38 percent of voters here would vote for Biden, while 48 percent would vote for Trump, according to data from Emerson College. History shows how hopeless the race for Biden in Iowa is: in the 2020 presidential election, Trump won the state by 8 percent. This year the lead could be even bigger – despite all the negative headlines surrounding Trump’s campaign. My colleague Myrte Müller recently explained why this is the case brought to the point. She quickly calls him the “Teflon Trump”.

Finally, let me summarize: Basically, the Republican primaries in Iowa are like looking into a cloudy crystal ball. And it shows: past elections or partial victories are about as valuable in American politics as lottery tickets bought yesterday. And there is only one certainty in the race for the White House: everything is uncertain. But that’s what makes it so exciting. I unwrap the popcorn.