Election chances despite storming of the Capitol, porn scandal and lawsuits: that’s why Donald Trump (77) is leading in the polls

Anyone who looks at the Democrat’s record is particularly surprised. Joe Biden has kept many of his campaign promises. He has invested massively in infrastructure, climate projects, domestic manufacturing and healthcare. He created a record number of jobs and pushed the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent, while also strengthening the transatlantic alliance. Despite everything: Biden is more unpopular than ever before. According to a January 3, 2024 survey, only 39 percent of respondents appreciated his work, while more than 56 percent disagreed. Even in the six so-called swing states, where voters traditionally swing between Democrats and Republicans, Trump would win the race today.

Good record for Biden, scandals for Trump

“Biden’s poor polls are a mystery,” said Martin Thunert (64), a political scientist at the Heidelberg Center for American Studies. “The US is doing better economically today. But what counts is the subjective feeling among the population that, for example, food prices are higher than before as a result of inflation. Moreover, migration at the southern border is still very high. The illegal immigrants brought society into turmoil.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has made headlines with scandals. He has several lawsuits pending for attempted election manipulation, possession of top secret government documents, paying hush money to a porn actress, defamation and fraud. He avoids TV discussions with other Republican candidates, preferring to campaign from the courtrooms. He announced that once he becomes president ‘for the third time’, he would jail all political opponents and critics, including Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton (76). And he would use the army against demonstrators. He would pardon all now-convicted Capitol stormers. Instead of presenting political programs, the ex-president stirs up primal fears among the population. The polemic works. This is also evident from recent studies. He seems to reject the negative news about him like a Teflon pan repels water.

A majority of Republicans believe in Trump’s ‘big lie’

61 percent of Republicans continue to believe Trump’s “big lie” that the 2020 election was stolen by Democrats. Many people also believe Trump’s story that the FBI was behind the storming of the Capitol, CNN reports. His core electorate is convinced that, as Trump always emphasizes, all cases against their political idol are pure witch hunts against him.

“Trump has a solid voter base of about 37 percent of Republicans,” says US expert Claudia Brühwiler (41) from the University of St. Gallen. That is why the former real estate entrepreneur will certainly be a presidential candidate. But it is not yet certain that he will win the elections on November 5. Trump would need votes from independent voters. Any rulings in upcoming lawsuits could still play a role. “Surveys always have a margin of error,” says the political scientist.

Both experts are certain about one point: one of Biden’s biggest problems is his image as an old candidate. The fact that the media constantly focuses on images of the American president falling, stuttering and losing the thread in his speech does not create confidence, says Claudia Brühwiler. And Martin Thunert: “Joe Biden likes to cycle. It is not the ten kilometers he cycles that count, but the one fall he registers on his mobile phone.” Trump is probably more resilient when it comes to age. He prefers to play golf, where fewer accidents can happen.