The Ukrainians owe it mainly to the United States for successfully repelling Putin’s troops. US President Joe Biden (79) is putting together one aid package after another. Contents: Weapons and other military equipment. So far, the Democrat-ruled US has shipped or announced at least $53 billion worth of goods to Ukraine.
This massive support could suddenly collapse. Midterm elections will be held in the US on November 8, during which the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be reappointed.
Earlier this week, Republican minority leader in the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy, 57, true to the motto “America first,” announced that if his party won Ukraine, he would cancel the US blank check.
Congress has power over the wallet
It is not clear who will win the race in the midterm elections. According to polls, Democrats are neck and neck at 45.3 percent and Republicans at 45 percent. Critics of military aid, however, are mounting — mainly because they want to keep the money to pay for the country’s rising energy costs. Concerns over a Ukrainian defeat fell from 55 percent in May to 38 percent in September.
How would a Republican victory in the US midterm elections of November 8, 2022 affect military aid to Ukraine? The full review from Marco Steenbergen (59), America expert and political psychologist at the University of Zurich:
“Congress has power over the wallet. A Republican majority would therefore significantly impede aid to Ukraine. Since the US has not declared war on Russia, alternative channels such as the War Powers Act cannot be used. So Biden and Ukraine would have a big problem.
Republicans believe that Biden’s Ukraine policy is ineffective and therefore the money is being misused. Personally, I think the real reason is that Republicans reject everything Biden stands for. In the medium term, they do the same, except for the construction projects, which they reject but now count as one of their wins. Then there is the recurring claim of Ukrainian ties to Hunter Biden. And then there’s the Trump factor. Trump has embraced Putin, and many GOP congressmen — and even more candidates — are running as Trump supporters. They wholeheartedly buy the pro-Putin position. McCarthy, who is not exactly the most confident minority leader, wants to make it clear that he supports this view.
Biden sees the war in Ukraine not only as a war of aggression, but also as a symbol of the dangerous state of democratic principles today. That is why he is doing double duty to support Ukraine. In addition, Putin’s interference in the 2016 US presidential election makes Democrats inherently suspicious of Putin’s goals and plans. But Biden has a problem. For many Americans, Ukraine is a long way off, but the effects of its policies are being felt directly by its voters.
Trump admires Putin. He also shares some of Putin’s goals, such as weakening the EU. There is no doubt that Trump would end aid as soon as possible. He would probably also implode NATO. If Trump becomes president again and Putin is still in charge, he is unlikely to encounter any American obstacles to his policies along the way.
All this shows how important the midterm elections are. Not only domestic politics is at stake (eg abortion rights, gay rights, social security and voting rights). Foreign policy will also fundamentally change with a Republican victory. I don’t remember the midterm elections being so crucial in recent political history.”
The midterm elections have rarely been as decisive as now, says Marco Steenbergen (59), America expert and political psychologist at the University of Zurich. “Congress has power over the wallet. A Republican majority would therefore significantly impede aid to Ukraine. Biden and Ukraine would have a big problem.”
Biden fights Putin
Biden is so committed to Ukraine because he sees the war not only as a war of aggression, but also “as a symbol of the dangerous situation of democratic principles today,” Steenbergen said. In addition, Putin’s meddling in the 2016 US presidential election makes Democrats inherently suspicious of Putin’s goals and plans.
Manfred Berg, 62, a professor of American history at the University of Heidelberg in Germany, also believes that with a Republican majority, it will be more difficult for Biden to continue providing full military aid.
How would a Republican victory in the US midterm elections of November 8, 2022 affect military aid to Ukraine? The assessment of Manfred Berg (62), professor of American history at the University of Heidelberg (D), in full:
“Donald Trump, McCarthy and the nationalist-populist wing of the Republicans are in the tradition of the old security policy isolationism, which in the World Wars era took a stand against US interventions in Europe under the slogan ‘America First’. America only defends itself and its interests and stays away from conflicts that do not directly affect the country. This tradition has remained alive and influential despite the liberal internationalism of Wilson and Franklin D. Roosevelt and despite the systematic confrontation of the Cold War.
Biden, on the other hand, stands in the internationalist tradition of internationalism, which has represented an elite consensus since World War II. The US is the leading power of democracy and freedom, the protection and expansion of which is therefore in America’s national interest. Behind Biden’s attitude is certainly the historic experience that aggressors must be stopped in time.
If Republicans gain a majority, especially in the Senate, it will be more difficult for Biden to continue providing full military aid to Ukraine. However, many Republicans, following the tradition of Ronald Reagan, see the Russian aggression as a continuation of the Cold War and support extensive US aid. The isolationist wing, which has a certain elective affinity with Putin, does not necessarily set the tone on this issue. However, candidates like McCarthy clearly calculate that the radical portion of the Republican electorate will honor the message of spending American money on Americans.
Should Trump become president again in 2024, it would be a disaster for domestic and foreign policy and a happy day for Putin, who is counting on the destabilization of the US and the West. Trump’s foreign policy in general and his Russia policy in particular were erratic from 2017 to 2021, and in the event of a second term, they would become completely unpredictable. Whether America will be able to intervene at all in 2024, given the extreme polarization, remains to be seen. This would have fatal consequences for Europe, because without US security guarantees, NATO would be extremely weak and at the mercy of Putin’s nuclear blackmail.”
But he puts it into perspective: “Many Republicans, who follow the tradition of Ronald Reagan, see the Russian aggression as a continuation of the Cold War and support extensive US aid. The isolationist wing, which has a certain elective affinity with Putin, is not necessarily setting the tone on this issue.”
“This would have fatal consequences for Europe”
However, it would be devastating if Donald Trump (76) were re-elected as US president within two years. This is a horror scenario for both Steenbergen and Berg. Steenbergen on Blick: “Trump admires Putin. He also shares some of Putin’s goals, such as weakening the EU. There is no doubt that Trump would cut aid as soon as possible and likely implode NATO as well.”
“This would have fatal consequences for Europe,” Manfred Berg said of a potential Trump election. Because without US security guarantees, NATO would be extremely weak and at the mercy of Putin’s nuclear blackmail. Berg: “If Trump became president again in 2024, it would be a disaster for domestic and foreign policy and a happy day for Putin.”