The new Russian commander Sergei Surovikin (56) is known for his unscrupulous tactics. When Surovikin bombed hospitals and residential areas in Syria in 2019, he was nicknamed “General Armageddon”.
In an interview with Russia 24 on Tuesday, he hinted at how he plans to “crush” the enemy. Australian military expert Mick Ryan has analyzed the Russian general’s recent actions and explained on Twitter what Surovikin’s next steps could be.
You can already feel that “General Armageddon” has taken over, as the Russians have changed their strategy. Putin’s forces target critical infrastructure in Ukraine. Power plants, oil and gas storage facilities and transportation hubs are under attack from long-range fires. A diversion intended to buy time for Surovikin’s front troops to prepare for the next attack.
Change of strategy arose out of necessity
Other experts also see such a change. “It looks like a change of strategy, similar to that of the German Air Force in September 1940 in the Battle of Britain, when military targets were replaced by civilian targets,” ETH security expert Mauro Mantovani (59) told Blick this week.
Mantovani explains that this change of strategy came about out of necessity, as Putin’s forces have stopped making progress in fighting military targets. Surovikin admitted in an interview that his troops had difficulty holding the southern city of Kherson. And he even hinted at withdrawing from the region.
Prevent disasters like in Lyman
“General Armageddon” faces a difficult task. He should lead the Russians to victory. His predecessors failed. Since it was not possible on the battlefield, Surovikin tried to destroy Ukraine with air strikes. A tried and true strategy he already used in the Syrian war.
In Ukraine, tactics are now crucial. This mainly saves the general time. Because: The Russian soldiers are tired. There is a lack of motivation and equipment. With the partial mobilization, Putin delivered supplies. With Surovikin’s maneuvers, the summoned Russians now have enough time to reach the war zone, along with equipment and ammunition. It is important to close the gaps in the military.
Military expert Mick Ryan is convinced that Surovikin assumes that he will have to give up areas at the front in order not to lose his soldiers. However, he will defend the crucial areas until the spring of 2023. Above all, he will protect the supply routes, so that the supply of the troops is assured. He wants to prevent such a disaster in Lyman. At the end of September, the Russians were surrounded in the city by the Ukrainian army.
War should last as long as possible
In the spring of 2023, Surovikin will increasingly rely on ground forces and plan offensives, according to the Australian military expert. The soldiers have to be prepared for that in the coming months.
Putin expects Surovikin to extend the war as long as possible. The Kremlin chief probably assumes that the West will lose interest in the war and will no longer support Ukraine with weapons and money.
Although Russia’s strategies have been heavily criticized so far, Ryan cautions that Surovikin does have planning skills and that his new strategies should not be underestimated.