The destruction of the large dam on the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region is receiving increasing attention. According to President Zelensky, the Russian army detonated explosives at the Kakhovka Dam, about 50 kilometers north of the city of Kherson. On the other hand, there is speculation from the Russian side about a Ukrainian destruction of the flood protection system.

But that wouldn’t make sense, because from the Ukrainian point of view, a dam rupture would only have disadvantages, says Ukrainian journalist and veteran Viktor Kovalenko. “It will lead to a humanitarian and ecological catastrophe and major damage in important industrial regions.” Conversely, Russia constantly attacks vital infrastructure in Ukraine, in front of it a dam.

The destruction of the dam will flood dozens of villages and parts of the important port city of Kherson. Decades ago, Soviet researchers calculated that in the event of a breakthrough, a meter-high wave would flow downstream at a force of 25 kilometers per hour. The researchers calculated that the turbulent water would reach the city of Cherson after just two hours.

This area would be flooded in the event of an injury:

According to the Ukrainian security service, the Russian army planted explosives on the dam back in April. The blast is intended to break the Ukrainian advance in the region, says Eastern Europe expert Bob Deen from the Clingendael Institute. “This will hinder the Ukrainian forces on the west bank. The widened Dnieper will then become a very well defendable border.”

Russia will blame Ukraine for a dam breach, Zelenskyy expects. While it’s unlikely that Ukraine can remotely destroy the dam, it at least casts doubt on the facts, Deen says. “And doubts always speak for the perpetrator.” Then Russia can “take revenge” with renewed attacks on Ukraine.

The area around the dam is currently under Russian control, but that appears to have become an “untenable position,” Deen says. In recent days there have been signs that Russia is moving soldiers and officers, as well as tens of thousands of civilians, from the West Bank to positions further east. The Kremlin declined to comment on a withdrawal.

canal and nuclear power plant

A dam failure also has disadvantages for Russia. The area occupied by Russia on the east bank is also flooded. In addition, fresh water from the reservoir behind the dam is fed to the Crimea via a canal. If the water level falls, the drinking water supply in Crimea is at risk. After Russia’s annexation of the peninsula in 2014, Ukraine also cut off its water supply pending this year’s Russian invasion.

On the other hand: “As soon as Ukraine regains control of the canal, the canal will also be closed,” Deen expects. So it won’t be a crucial reason to maintain the dam, Kovalenko adds. “Russia sees Crimea as a military outpost, not as an important agricultural area. Crimea will survive without this water.”

And then there is the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhya, which has been a cause of great concern for some time. The largest nuclear power plant in Europe relies on cooling water storage. Without cooling water, the system must be switched off.

How do you destroy a dam?

However, Ukraine has repeatedly attacked the dam area in recent months osinth research It appears that the dam itself will be spared. The rockets mainly damaged the road sections, destroyed the bridge connection and isolated the Russian army on the west bank.

The Kachovka dam is a fairly robust model, says Davide Wüthrich from TU Delft. As a researcher at large waterworks, he is constantly dealing with dam failures. “A dam is built to withstand disasters. This type of dam is difficult to break, but nothing is impossible.” The dam can be blown up with very powerful explosives – at the weakest points, the Swiss thinks.

The extent of the flood then depends on the size of the resulting hole, says Wüthrich. “The force of the water can further enlarge such a hole, but with this type of dam that’s not very likely.”

Journalist Kovalenko fears that if the dam breaks, thousands of lives will be at risk. “In the Cherson region, older people in particular are left behind. They cannot be evacuated quickly. Hundreds of people could die from the water.”