China has major problems (the elections in Taiwan are one of them) and illegal fishing is much more widespread than expected

The Year of the Dragon begins in China on February 10. The mythological creature, which is viewed rather negatively in the West, is highly revered in the Far East. The dragon is considered a guarantee of success and a good luck charm. However, it is more than doubtful whether this hope will become reality in the People’s Republic. Lately everything has been going but smoothly.

In December 2022, the government lifted the Zero Covid policy, with tough lockdowns and nearly three years of isolation from the outside world, almost overnight. The virus then swept through the population like a tsunami, killing an estimated one million people (official propaganda says several tens of thousands died).

Protests had previously broken out in some cities – an unprecedented event in Xi Jinping’s digital surveillance state. The main reason for the abrupt end of Zero Covid was probably the state of the Chinese economy. The post-Covid boom that experts and business leaders expected was an upswing at best.

Xi admits there are ‘headwinds’.

Instead, the return to normality has exposed the weaknesses of the supposed economic model country: high public and private debts, rising youth unemployment (no figures have been allowed to be published since mid-2023) and a real estate crisis for which there is not yet a recipe. is found.

Even President Xi Jinping had to admit problems in his New Year’s speech, which he delivered on December 31 according to the Western calendar. “We felt headwinds along the way,” he said, using the euphemism typical of the Communist Party. Xi also addressed Taiwan. He called the reunion “inevitable.”

Start of the “super election year”

In the breakaway island republic of 23 million inhabitants, which from Beijing’s perspective, presidential and parliamentary elections will take place on January 13. They mark the start of the ‘super election year’ 2024, which will include elections in the EU, India and the US (we can safely exclude the ‘presidential elections’ in Russia).

Taiwan introduces the first ‘fragrance brand’ in this series. President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who wants to retain at least de facto autonomy, is no longer a candidate after two terms in office. The current vice president, Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, has a good chance of becoming her successor.

Dirty election campaign

In the latest polls (which have not been published since Wednesday), he was more or less clearly ahead of his strongest rival, Hou Yu-ih from the conservative, rather China-friendly Kuomintang. According to the Reuters agency, the election campaign became increasingly vicious, with the relationship with the People’s Republic of China taking center stage.

Lai insulted his challenger Hou as a kind of lackey of Beijing, about which he complained in a television debate last Saturday: “During the election campaign, I am painted red every day and called pro-Chinese. But are cross-border peace, exchanges and dialogue something that should not be pursued?”

Fake news from Beijing

Hou Yu-ih strikes a chord with this, because military provocations by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army have become almost commonplace. Xi Jinping makes no secret of his desire to bring democratic Taiwan ‘home to the Reich’ by force. He sees reunification as a kind of personal prestige project.

Just like four years ago, China is trying to influence the elections in Taiwan with fake news and fake profiles on social networks. And it’s getting more and more sophisticated. The consequences must still be manageable. According to current surveys, only just over ten percent of Taiwanese support a “merger” with China.

Corruption in the military

For Xi, a success by the DPP, which is critical of China, would be a provocation. However, experts do not expect a military invasion to take place anytime soon. The risk of a confrontation with the US is too great. There are also doubts about the military’s effectiveness. Shortly before the end of the year, several senior officers were removed without explanation.

They are said to have abused their position for enrichment. The latest cases indicate that “even after ten years, corruption in the military has not been eradicated,” the NZZ wrote. A few months ago, Defense Minister Li Shangfu disappeared from the scene. Shortly before the new year, he was replaced by Admiral Dong Jun.

Rumors of power struggles

Foreign Minister Qin Gang was also fired last year after just a few months in office, reportedly over an extramarital affair. Such events gave rise to rumors of a power struggle among the leadership, also because the “third plenum” of the Central Committee, scheduled for autumn 2023, has still not taken place.

Perhaps Xi Jinping is not as firmly in the saddle as he seems. The economic woes contribute to this. The World Bank expects growth of 4.5 percent by 2024. People in Western countries would be more than happy with this, but it is not enough to fulfill the Communist Party’s promise of increasing prosperity.

China’s ‘last generation’

According to the “NZZ am Sonntag”, terms such as “last generation” and “lying down” are popular among the young generation in China. They showed the condition of Chinese youth: deep pessimism, hopelessness, completely turned away from the future. One consequence of this is the record low birth rate, despite the abolition of the one-child policy.

This makes demography one of the many challenges facing China’s leadership. There is much to suggest that the economy takes precedence over the “conquest” of Taiwan. It is fitting that China, according to The Economist, wants to send an “unusually large delegation” to the World Economic Forum (WEF).

It is led by Premier Li Qiang. He would be the highest-ranking Chinese politician at Davos since Xi Jinping personally paid his respects seven years ago. It was shortly before Donald Trump was sworn in as US president, and Xi was hailed as a champion of free trade. Today, the West sees China as a greater risk.