Beijing wants to prevent Lai Ching-te from becoming president of Taiwan: the Chinese are releasing balloons because of him

The timing of the balloon agglomeration is unlikely to be a coincidence. On January 13, Taiwan, which has a population of 24 million, will elect its president and parliament. The outcome will determine the country’s future positioning vis-à-vis China.

Su Tzu-yun of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research told the German News Agency: “China is deliberately using the favorable southwest wind to make such non-motorized weather balloons take off more often and fly over Taiwan, thus intimidating the people of Taiwan . Taiwan before the elections.»

‘Separatist’ leaders in polls

Preparations for the elections are not going as planned for Beijing, which counts Taiwan as its own territory. According to polls, incumbent Vice President Lai Ching-te (64) of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading the presidential election with 32 percent. He wants to replace President Tsai Ing-wen (67), who is no longer eligible after two terms in office.

Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, was a former popular mayor of Tainan. In contrast to the incumbent president, he wants to promote Taiwan’s independence even more vigorously. He sparked outrage among Chinese leaders in 2014 when he spoke out in Shanghai for the Taiwanese people’s right to self-determination. Hardly any Taiwanese politician had previously dared to make such statements on Chinese soil. That is why he is portrayed in Beijing as a ‘separatist’.

He faces two opposition candidates: New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih (66) of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je (64) of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Hou Yu-ih is pro-China and speaks out against Taiwan’s independence. He is trailing favorite Lai Ching-te in the polls with 27 percent. With 21 percent, Ko Wen-je offers an alternative to the two major parties. He especially appeals to young people and is also willing to work with Beijing.

China threatens and seduces

Beijing is doing everything it can to help the KMT win. “The People’s Republic of China is doing this with carrots and sticks,” said Simona Grano, a China and Taiwan expert at the University of Zurich. “On the one hand, it uses gray zone tactics, such as digital warfare and sending ships and planes towards Taiwan.” The balloons are also included.

On the other hand, China is trying to lure Taiwanese compatriots – for example with the promise of expanding economic ties with the Taiwan-controlled island of Kinmen. Grano: “The project is intended to show what awaits Taiwanese if they accept reunification with the mainland – namely a second home for themselves and their families and preferential treatment for their businesses.”

Because the opposition votes will be split between two parties, the DPP could lose the parliamentary elections, unlike the presidential elections. That would play into Beijing’s hands. Grano: “With a divided Taiwanese government, the Communist Party could attempt to conduct both overt and covert operations to destabilize the country while damaging the credibility of the DPP and Taiwanese democracy.”