How far does the war escalate after the attack on a Hamas leader? Experts classify: Hezbollah swears bitter revenge

In any case, the Hezbollah militia announced retaliatory measures. “We will not tolerate Lebanon becoming another battlefield for Israel,” Hezbollah boss Hassan Nasrallah (63) said. He promised further information by Wednesday evening.

The Islamists blame Israel for the deaths of Saleh al-Aruri and six other people. French President Emmanuel Macron (46) urged restraint. He called on the Israeli government to “avoid any escalating behavior, especially in Lebanon.”

However, Israel has not confirmed the attack; Israeli security advisor Mark Regev (60) tried to de-escalate: “Whoever did this, it must be clear that this was not an attack on the Lebanese state. It wasn’t even an attack on Hezbollah.”

Is the situation escalating in the Middle East? We now explain everything you need to know.

Hezbollah has built up a large arsenal of weapons over the years, mainly with help from Iran. The number of rockets targeting Israel is estimated at between 70,000 and 150,000. In addition to cheap projectiles with a short range and without a guidance system, this also includes heavier and highly accurate weapons, such as the Russian supersonic Jachont missile, which can sink ships.

The Shia terrorist militia consists of an estimated 25,000 fighters. It is better equipped and, thanks to its combat experience in the Syrian war, better trained than Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Michel Wyss (36) of the Military Academy in Zurich: “Although Hezbollah has significant capabilities – especially for a non-state armed group – it is still conventionally inferior to the Israeli army. It has no air force and only a few ground air defense units and heavy assets.

Hezbollah also has a tunnel system with command centers and logistics. It is much more advanced than Hamas’s. The underground tunnels ran for hundreds of kilometers in southern Lebanon, all the way to the border with Israel, Israeli intelligence expert Tal Beeri said. Some tubes are so large that small trucks can move rocket launchers over several kilometers.

Hezbollah received help from Iran and North Korea during construction. The terrorist organizations use the tunnel network as protection against Israel’s massive bombings and to hide. The terrorists also need the tunnels to appear out of nowhere and attack the advancing Israeli soldiers from behind. The terrorists are also said to be holding hostages from Israel there.

Fighting at the Israeli-Lebanese border has increased in recent weeks. Wyss says: “Israel’s alleged killing of al-Aruri could prompt Hezbollah to carry out further and larger-scale attacks – for example by using long-range missiles. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah had warned Israel in the past against targeted killings.

The exchange of blows on Israel’s northern border is likely to continue and the risk of escalation will continue to increase depending on Hezbollah’s retaliation. Wyss: ‘But I am skeptical about whether there will be a real extension of the war. It is unlikely that either Israel or Hezbollah will continue to have any interest in war.”

Michael Bauer (47), head of the foreign office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Lebanon, also expects the fighting on the border between Israel and Lebanon to intensify. There could also be increased activity by Houthi rebels and pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq – for example against US facilities.

However, both Israel and Hezbollah have shown that, at least so far, they do not want full escalation. Hezbollah also has no interest in launching its rocket arsenal against Israel. Bauer: “Hezbollah’s missile arsenal represents a kind of ‘second strike capability’ for Iran to deter Israel and the US from attacks on Tehran and the Iranian nuclear program. Hezbollah is therefore an essential part of Iran’s regional security policy.”

With the mediation of Qatar, Egypt and the US, Israel and Hamas agreed to a multi-day ceasefire in late November to exchange hostages for Palestinian prisoners. During this time, some hostages were released from Israeli prisons in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. After the alleged murder of al-Aruri, negotiations on a possible new hostage agreement between the warring parties have come to a standstill.

About 130 hostages are still in the hands of Hamas. As the war spreads, liberation or a deal with the terrorists will likely become increasingly difficult.

Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip in 2005 after 38 years of occupation. Now far-right Israeli politicians are demanding that Israelis repopulate the enclave and that Palestinians be “encouraged to emigrate.” Among the loudest agitators actually proposing an annexation of the Gaza Strip are Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (43) and Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir (47).

Even Israeli friends in the US reacted unusually sharply to this idea. Matthew Miller, spokesman for the US State Department, said: “This rhetoric is inflammatory and irresponsible.” Ben-Gvir responded to X: “I have great respect for the United States of America, but with all due respect: Israel is not just another star on the American flag. The United States is our good friend, but above all we will do what is best for Israel.”