What if Russia wins? Iran threatens Israel with retaliation ++ Israeli Strategy Minister expected in US

The first year of the war was a complete disgrace for the Russian army. Their tanks were destroyed near Kiev and the attack was repulsed. In the fall, the Ukrainians surprised the Russians with targeted attacks, recapturing large areas in the northeast around Kharkov and in the south around Kherson, and forcing Russian soldiers to flee, sometimes in disarray.

Great hopes were therefore placed on the second year of the war. A Ukrainian advance into the Sea of ​​Azov and even a reconquest of the Crimean Peninsula seemed feasible goals. Instead, however, they failed to break through the Russian defense lines. The armies have been engaged in a tough positional war for months, with neither making any significant gains.

This stalemate suits Vladimir Putin well. He counts on having larger reserves of soldiers and war materials and can therefore exhaust the Ukrainians. Moreover, he has apparently consumed the shame of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s operetta-like uprising and ensured that the former leader of the infamous Wagner mercenaries is no longer among the living.

At the same time, the economy has not collapsed thanks to Chinese aid and the fact that countries like Turkey still allow exports to Russia. According to polls, Putin can still count on the support of his compatriots and people are apparently willing to accept a war economy.

But above all, Putin can be happy with the Christmas presents the West gives him. In the United States, a $60 billion aid package to Ukraine is being blocked in Congress, a package that is urgently needed in Kiev. The circumstances of this blockade are absurd. A majority of senators and representatives are still willing to continue aid. The blockade is the result of a domestic political dispute between the two sides in Washington.

The Republicans have made their commitment conditional on concessions that President Joe Biden and the Democrats must make to stop the flow of immigrants at the border with Mexico. Because the situation at this border has effectively become untenable, Democrats are willing to give in. However, the Republicans’ demands are so radical that no compromise has yet been found, even in the Senate, where there are still some representatives of the Grand Old Party (GOP) with whom rational negotiations are possible.

If there is a compromise in the Senate, the cow is not yet out of the ice. Then the MPs must also agree with it, and that is much more difficult. In the House of Representatives, the “crazy people” within the Republican Party are in charge. These have only one purpose, which Fiona Hill, the renowned former security advisor, describes in an interview with the news portal Politico as follows: “The problem is that many members of Congress do not want Biden to achieve a victory in any way. front side. These guys are unable to distinguish between what it means to see Biden win or what it means to see Ukraine win. They do not think about the security of the US, Europe and the international order. They just want to humiliate Biden.”

The EU also wants to send Ukraine an aid package of 50 billion euros, but this package is also blocked. Under current EU rules, approval of this aid must be unanimous. However, Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, has so far resisted. Thanks to a trick, he managed to miss the start of EU accession negotiations. But when it comes to money, Orbán remains stubborn. “Giving Ukraine 50 billion euros from the EU budget is a bad decision because the EU has no money,” he says.

The Hungarian prime minister is usually a lone fighter, but this time he thinks he will receive support. Research shows that war fatigue is also increasing in Europe. Moreover, Russia-friendly politicians have achieved partial victories in elections. In Slovakia, Robert Fico was elected prime minister with the promise not to give a cent of military aid to Ukraine. In the Netherlands, right-wing extremist Geert Wilders, also a notorious Putin supporter, achieved a surprising victory.

Stalemate on the battlefield, orderly conditions and a stable economy at home, and unexpected Christmas presents from Washington and Brussels: Putin has every reason to once again proclaim his war aims to the world. He still wants to defeat the conceited Nazis in Ukraine and push NATO back to the former borders of the Iron Curtain. But what is he actually supposed to achieve these goals? What if Russia wins?

In the Financial Times, Simon Kuper summarizes the consequences of a Putin victory in five points:

For Fiona Hill, even a partial victory for Putin would be a catastrophe. «He would already be anticipating the next steps of this match, while everyone else would still be moving on the spot. Just like the judo fighter he was in his youth, he thinks in terms of rounds of a tournament. If he doesn’t win the first round, he might win the second and that’s how he wins.”

For these reasons, a ‘frozen conflict’ such as in divided Korea or divided Germany after World War II is not an option. “That would be a big victory for Putin,” Hill said, “because it would give him a platform for further attack attempts.”

Although a victory for the Russian army has become conceivable, it is by no means certain. The Ukrainians are determined to keep fighting no matter what. Moreover, Russia must pay a heavy price in blood for the stalemate on the battlefield. Russia’s losses in people and equipment are much greater than those of Ukraine. U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that Ukraine has destroyed about 90 percent of its pre-war military.

Moreover, Ukraine has not yet used most of the Western weapons. The F-16 fighter jets will finally be available in the spring. Ultimately, the chance remains that the Western aid packages will have to be brought into the world with tweezers, but that they will be delivered despite everything.

There’s too much at stake. A defeat for Ukraine would also be a fatal defeat for the West, and the consequences would be far-reaching. “We would destroy each other,” Hill said. “There is no option for a happy ending.”