Authoritarian President Vucic has serious competition: 6 things you need to know about Sunday’s Serbian elections

Do they have a chance? Would there finally be peace with Kosovo? Would there even be riots? Or will everything stay the same? We show you what you need to know about the elections.

Following two shootings in May that left eighteen people dead, there were massive protests with tens of thousands of people taking to the streets. They accused Vucic of promoting a climate of hatred and glorification of violence and called for his resignation.

The conflict with Kosovo, where Serbs murdered a police officer in September, also plays a role. The EU is putting pressure on both countries to improve their relationship if they want to join the union.

Under pressure from public opinion, Vucic dissolved parliament in the fall and scheduled new elections for December 17 – at such short notice that the opposition barely had time to form. At the same time, local elections will take place in 65 municipalities, including Belgrade. The current parliament has only been in office since April 2022.

Eighteen electoral alliances compete for the voters’ favor. A victory for Vucic’s progressive party SNS is considered likely. Surveys give her almost 40 percent. The united opposition, which presents itself as “Serbia against violence”, follows with 25 percent. It is the first time that such a broad alliance has stood for election and achieved such good poll numbers. Because Vucic controls the media, the opposition gets significantly fewer appearances.

“In the short term, there may be sensitive moments, such as demonstrations from different directions and police violence,” says Konrad Clewing (56) of the Leibnitz Institute for Eastern and Southeastern European Research. Then it would be possible that the secret service close to the Kremlin would resort to help from Moscow.

Swiss Balkan expert Daniel Bochsler (45) from the Central European University in Vienna refers to Macedonia and Montenegro: “There were many discussions and threats when a change of power became apparent. But the situation did not escalate further.”

Economic development, the relationship with Kosovo, democratization and unbridled violence. Violence is even glorified in TV entertainment shows where men destroy furniture and threaten women and where a convict gives tips on how to kill someone in prison without leaving a trace.

If the opposition beats Vucic, it wouldn’t actually be a change of course. “Part of the opposition consists of nationalists,” says Bochsler. However, an opposition election victory would dismantle the current network between criminal groups and paramilitaries controlling northern Kosovo, the Serbian secret service and the Serbian government. Bochsler: “This would pave the way for the involvement of representatives of the Serb population of Kosovo, who appear to be more interested in a solution than the government in Belgrade.”

And if Vucic wins again? Even then, there is still some hope. Clewing: “Since the election campaign is over and Vucic is no longer under pressure, one can hope that he will somewhat reduce his aggressiveness towards Kosovo.”

The experts do not believe that the Kremlin has direct influence on the elections. Clewing: “The Kremlin is satisfied with Vucic’s foreign policy direction. And you can assume that he will win the elections.” It is said that the media is influenced by the Kremlin, “but above all manipulated by Vucic himself”.

According to Bochsler, the political vision that many Serbs associate with the Russian leadership is much more important than campaign support. Bochsler: “By this vision I mean an alternative to Europe and the idea that Russia will subjugate Ukraine and then help the Serbs win back Kosovo and destroy Bosnia and Herzegovina as a country.” President Vucic alluded to this topic in a highly regarded television appearance a few days ago.