Breathe a sigh of relief for Sunak: British parliament votes for controversial asylum deal with Rwanda US inflation fell in November 2023

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak escaped a historic defeat in parliament in the dispute over his asylum policy. On Tuesday evening, the majority of MPs in the House of Commons voted in second reading for a bill with which the conservative government wants to save its asylum treaty with Rwanda, which has been declared unlawful by the Supreme Court.

There were previously serious doubts whether Sunak could get the required majority behind him. Both the right and moderate wings of his party had major reservations about the bill. However, at the last minute the government managed to convince ultra-conservative MPs not to vote against the draft by promising concessions.

Ultimately, 313 MPs voted in favor of the bill and 269 against. Otherwise, according to reports, it would have been the first time since 1986 that a bill failed the second reading – Sunak could have faced political extinction. However, it is unlikely that the dispute will be settled with the won vote. The Prime Minister was simply buying time. According to media reports, almost forty MPs from his own party abstained from voting. If they turned against him, he probably wouldn’t win a majority.

The government wants to make Rwanda a safe third country by law

Central to the dispute is an asylum treaty with Rwanda. To deter migrants, London wants to send irregular arrivals to the East African country in the future without examining their asylum claims and regardless of their origin. Instead, they should apply for protection there; there are no plans to return to Britain. However, the British Supreme Court had raised concerns about the Rwandan asylum procedure and declared the plan illegal in mid-November.

To overcome this hurdle, the government in London now wants to legally declare Rwanda a safe third country while ruling out legal action in Britain, citing human rights.

The right threatens to have the law fail in its third reading

“The British people should decide who can come to this country – not criminal gangs or foreign courts. That is what this bill delivers,” Sunak wrote after the vote on X. He added: “We will now make it a law so we can start the flights to Rwanda and stop the boats.”

Critics, including from his own party, accused Sunak of disregarding the rule of law with the project. For others, the initiative did not go far enough. They demanded that the possibility of going to international courts be excluded by law. Several right-wing groups within the Tory group announced shortly before the vote that they would abstain. However, they threatened to fail the third reading of the bill in the new year if their demands were not met. The disputes were reminiscent of the chaotic Brexit period, when then Prime Minister Theresa May failed several times with her Brexit deal in the House of Commons.

Symbolic politics with high costs

Sunak, whose Tory Party is trailing the opposition Labor Party in the polls, has made it a central priority to end the illegal entry of migrants in small boats across the English Channel. In 2022 alone, around 45,000 people came to Britain this way. This year so far the number is a third lower than last year. Nevertheless, the promise is not considered fulfilled.

For the British Prime Minister it is already a matter of the election campaign: a new parliament must be elected by January 2025, commentators expect a vote no later than the autumn of 2024. The Tories see the crackdown on irregular immigrants as an opportunity to anger Brexit supporters from the working class hold the rod.

Experts such as political scientist Matthew Flinders of the University of Sheffield speak of symbolic politics at high costs. So far, £240 million has flowed into Rwanda, with another £50 million due next year – but so far not a single migrant has been transferred there.

Hardliners demand withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights

Parliament’s human rights committee warned that the law breaches international law and could lead to an unprecedented constitutional conflict between ministers and the British courts. Hardliners are even calling for withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so that those affected can no longer turn to the European Court of Human Rights. Sunak has so far rejected this.

But if the prime minister changes course, the moderate part of the parliamentary group, also about a hundred members strong, will likely revolt. These Tories fear for the country’s reputation if Britain ignores international human rights. The 43-year-old is therefore stuck between the fronts. “The Prime Minister no longer has any cards in his hand,” says political scientist Flinders.

Some are already calling for the return of Boris Johnson

Exactly four years after their stunning election victory in 2019, the Conservatives have been able to avoid a serious bankruptcy for the time being. But it will probably remain awkward. The first people are already demanding that the winner of the past take over the party again to prevent an election debacle. His name: Boris Johnson. (sda/dpa)