How Putin sets course for Arctic immigration law: Defeat for French government over unholy alliance

Nikolai Yevmenov has big plans: the 80th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat by the Soviet Union will be celebrated in the future with a series of “military-patriotic” events in the Arctic, the Russian navy chief said last week at the Arctic Forum in St. Petersburg. Petersburg.

But Yevmenov wants even more: Russia’s military presence should be further expanded in the world’s northernmost region. This is a “coercive measure” that follows “aggressive measures by other countries”. Moreover, Russia must expand its influence in the region – even beyond the territory to which the country in the far north is actually entitled under international law.

“Collaboration hinders”

For decades, the region in the far north was mainly interesting for research purposes or for adventurers. But that is long gone: different groups now compete for the region based on different interests. What exactly does Russia want to do by expanding its military capabilities?

In principle, other states are also aware of the growing tensions in the region: “The Russian war in Ukraine has exacerbated geopolitical tensions in the Arctic, as well as globally, creating new risks of unintended conflict and hampering cooperation,” it said report. US Arctic Strategy Paper, published October 2022.

The diplomatic connections of the northernmost states have also been limited since then. Since February 2021, the Kremlin has also been isolated in the Arctic Council. Russia chaired the discussion forum until last May. However, the remaining member states Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Canada and the US had not participated in a joint meeting since the start of the war.

New nuclear submarines are being planned

Despite the great tension caused by the war in Ukraine, Russia has also expanded its military presence in the Arctic: just this Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched two new nuclear submarines named “Krasnoyarsk” and “Tsar Alexander III.” » inaugurated and described them as “terrifying missile carriers”. Putin reiterated that Russia’s military presence will continue to grow not only in the Arctic, but also in other regions such as the Baltic Sea, the Caspian and Black Seas and the Far East. Eight more submarines are currently scheduled to be built.

Last December, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told US news channel CNN that they were currently seeing a “significant military build-up by Russia in the far north”. As a result, Stoltenberg announced that the alliance would also double its presence in the region.

The news channel used satellite images to show that Russia had expanded and modernized parts of its northernmost military bases. Some systems date back to the Soviet era. From a military point of view, this is fundamentally nothing new, Stoltenberg argues: The shortest route from Russia to the US runs via the North Pole.

“Unlikely, but not unthinkable”

However, the region also has a growing economic importance: as long as the ice there continues to melt due to climate change, new sea routes could emerge that will significantly shorten the route from Southeast Asia to Europe – and the entire Russian coast. There are also large untapped resources in the region. China is also involved in the region.

But does increasing armament automatically make military conflict more likely? According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic & International Studies from January, the country’s interests are mainly defensive. Russia wants to protect its military facilities on the Kola Peninsula, which borders Finland. The same applies to various oil and gas installations.

However, in an “unlikely but not unthinkable” battle between Russia and NATO, the signals could change: in that case, a “limited invasion of Norway or Finland” would be conceivable to set up a new buffer zone to protect nuclear installations .