Russia expert: “This sanction hurts” As of today, the speed limit is 30 almost everywhere in Amsterdam – bicycles have priority

Mr Schmid, the G7 has once again decided on sanctions against Russia. How much influence does this have on the course of the war?
Ulrich Schmid: The sanctions are important as a statement. This shows that we are responding to the Russian war of aggression. Unfortunately, it has now become clear that the sanctions are easy to circumvent. Technology imports occur indirectly through former post-Soviet states.

In concrete terms, the G7 have agreed on import bans on Russian diamonds. How does this complicate Russian war financing?
The lion’s share of the Russian state budget still comes from the oil trade. Nevertheless: this sanction will hurt. Even if it won’t change Russian policy. I believe that President Vladimir Putin has made it abundantly clear that he will do whatever it takes to maintain Russia’s position in Ukraine.

What exactly about oil?
Oil is important because it accounts for a large share of Russia’s revenues. There are no official commodity sanctions against Russia; instead, many European countries have voluntarily stopped buying Russian oil and gas. But: India, for example, buys a lot of cheap Russian oil, refines it and sells it back to Europe. So we still have Russian gasoline in our car.

What should you do about it?
There will always be loopholes. It would be an illusion to believe that sanctions can be enforced seamlessly.

So the impact of sanctions is limited?
Sanctions research shows that sanctions have a political effect if they are threatened but are not yet in force. The state threatened by sanctions should also be offered a face-saving refuge.

Financial and military aid from the West is stagnating. The funds approved by Congress are expected to be exhausted by the end of the year. What if Western money is missing?
The money is crucial to Ukraine’s military survival. Western military aid should not decrease, but should be continued at the same level or even increased in the new year. This is the only way Ukraine has a chance of repelling Russian aggression. However, things are not looking so good for Ukraine at the moment.

US President Biden has again called on the US Senate to pay. Is there a risk that other countries would stop paying more without the US?
Yes, there can be a demoralizing effect. The United States has provided the most military aid to date. If anything gets in the way, it could have a devastating effect on military aid from other countries. We are currently hearing in many European countries that we must now think about our own defense. Recently, for example, in Poland and Germany.

What military problems do the warring parties have?
It looks difficult on both sides. Russia has no extra soldiers to replace the exhausted men at the front with new ones. More than a year has passed since Russia’s partial mobilization in September 2022. These soldiers should be able to return home. The social pressure on Putin from the Russian population to achieve this is increasing. Within the Ukrainian military, internal political divisions undermine the effectiveness of the fighting.

And now it’s winter.
The winter makes the situation more difficult for both parties.

Is the end of the war in sight?
No. The war will continue. Russia has set aside enormous amounts in its national budget for military expenditure. That will be six to seven percent of gross domestic product. By comparison, when it comes to NATO member states, we are talking about achieving the ambitious target of two percent.