Anne Applebaum, the renowned American historian and Russia expert, summed it up: A Europe permanently at war is an idea that seems impossible to most people in the West.
However, Vladimir Putin sees things differently. As a KGB officer stationed in Dresden for a long time, he remembers the time when East Germany was ruled by the Kremlin.
Since the brutal invasion of Ukraine, it should have been clear that Putin not only dreams about it, but actually wants to create a new Great Russian empire.
We have entered “a new era of conflict between great powers,” analyzes Anne Applebaum. The Russians already knew this and had made the transition to a comprehensive war economy.
In the West, many managers do not seem to want to accept this yet. How else can the inability to support Ukraine be explained?
Given the continued hesitation regarding arms deliveries and the threat of shortages, it is advisable to assume the worst-case scenario. This is exactly what two German political scientists did. Below we reproduce key parts of her essay.
What if Russia won its war of criminal aggression against Ukraine?
The Political scientists Carlo Masala and Nico Lange from Germany have in their essay, which is worth reading (see Resources) a dramatic scenario is outlined.
Cruise missiles and swarms of drones are invading European NATO airspace. NATO soldiers have been fighting the fires in the Baltic states for days. In response to Russian attacks there, NATO activated Article 5. Russia responded with missiles.
Some states have withdrawn from NATO and the EU, while a hard core in the north and east offers fierce resistance. Germany and other countries are being torn apart.
During heated protests, violent riots broke out in many German, French, Italian and Spanish cities, forcing police to take decisive action.
Extremist and populist parties are benefiting enormously from the situation, not least because global trade and the economy are collapsing.
In the Indo-Pacific, China has been launching attacks on Taiwan for weeks. Meanwhile, the United Nations is passing resolutions against European NATO members as many African, Latin American and Asian states vote with Russia and China in the General Assembly.
* The two authors define Russia’s victory as a situation in which Russia is permanently allocated parts of Ukrainian territory “as part of negotiations or because of military realities on the ground.”
In their essay, Masala and Lange explain how they arrived at the European horror scenario. They emphasize that it is a thought experiment. But:
Nico Long (48), is a German political advisor, political scientist and journalist. He works as a senior advisor for Globsec, a global think tank, and previously held leadership positions at the Ministry of Defense.
Political scientists cite several reasons why a Russian victory would have catastrophic consequences.
Ukraine would then remain a permanent problem area in Eastern Europe. Both the Russian-occupied territories and the rest of Ukraine would be permanently unstable.
Many Ukrainians would leave their country because they do not want to live in the Russian-occupied territories and cannot survive there because of the expected Russian repression and torture. Others would try their luck in a safe foreign country because their home country no longer offers prospects for adults and children.
If Russia emerges victorious from the war in Ukraine, this will give Russian nationalism and neo-imperialism a significant boost, Masala and Lange emphasize. The Kremlin will then plan new military attacks, with Russia’s neighbors Georgia and the Republic of Moldova being obvious targets, as well as the Baltic EU states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
All this is happening against the backdrop of the collective West’s experience of succumbing to Russian nuclear weapons and Russian military power.
In addition, Russia will resort to open political blackmail against the West, with energy and raw materials being used as weapons again.
The two political scientists warn that no one in Europe would be safe anymore. The “humanitarian, economic and military costs” would rise rapidly.
A victorious Russia would give right-wing and left-wing extremists in many European countries a significant boost: they would all see confirmation of their position that it is not worth supporting Ukraine.
Russia would accompany this development with intensive influence operations, open support and financing of populists and extremists, and disinformation. Something Putin has been doing for a long time and relatively successfully.
This would increase the chance that extremists would increase their political power or even, like Dutch right-wing populist Geert Wilders, win elections.
In their thought experiment, the German political scientists naturally also recall domestic political developments in the US. If Putin’s friend Donald Trump is elected US president in 2024, NATO’s days would be numbered.
This is precisely the goal of the ‘new security order in Europe’, which Putin is openly pursuing.
If the transatlantic defense alliance were to enter serious turmoil and the United States were to withdraw its protective hand, Russia would likely gain the upper hand in Europe as a result of such a development.
A Russian victory over Ukraine would have catastrophic consequences not only for Europe, but also for the rest of the world, the two political scientists warn in their thought experiment.
China, Iran and other anti-democratic actors kept a close eye on the extent to which the democratic West was prepared to stand up decisively for its values (universal human rights) and the liberal world order.
From this perspective, China’s invasion of Taiwan would be “not only conceivable, but also very likely,” Masala and Lange say in their essay.
If international law and the global security order no longer apply, that is, if every country without nuclear weapons had to fear attack, this would result in nuclear armament.
The political scientists:
The worrying prediction: eventually there would be fifteen or more nuclear powers instead of the current nine. This would increase the risk of a devastating miscalculation and the possibility of a technical failure.
The scientists point out that the thought experiment shows that a Russian victory would have unforeseeable consequences for European and global stability.
A Russian victory would cost us all much more politically and economically. And it could be the beginning of something no democrat wants: the end of the liberal world order and the beginning of an authoritarian world order.
The political scientists dare to offer a conciliatory perspective: a Ukraine that, as a member of NATO and the EU, could completely free itself from Russia’s imperial rule would give Europe a boost. In terms of security, prosperity and global status.
At the same time, Putin’s defeat and the likely accompanying overthrow of his kleptocratic regime would “open opportunities for a peaceful and constructive role for Russia in Europe in the future.”
It is at least questionable whether this hopeful prediction by political scientists will become reality. As they say among military mission planners: hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
Anne Applebaum should have the last word:
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
On the same day of the terrorist attack on the Krokus City Hall in Moscow,…
class="sc-cffd1e67-0 iQNQmc">1/4Residents of Tenerife have had enough of noisy and dirty tourists.It's too loud, the…
class="sc-cffd1e67-0 iQNQmc">1/7Packing his things in Munich in the summer: Thomas Tuchel.After just over a year,…
At least seven people have been killed and 57 injured in severe earthquakes in the…
The American space agency NASA would establish a uniform lunar time on behalf of the…
class="sc-cffd1e67-0 iQNQmc">1/8Bode Obwegeser was surprised by the earthquake while he was sleeping. “It was a…