Today Putin travels to the Saudis – and stokes anti-Israel sentiment. Airbus may need government loans for its next medium-haul aircraft

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been in international isolation. State visits outside the Russian sphere of influence have become rare for him. This also has to do with the arrest warrant issued against him at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. Putin will travel to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday. So the question is: will Putin be arrested there?

According to the Kremlin, Putin will meet with President Mohammed bin Sajed al-Nahjan during the 24-hour short trip to the Emirates to discuss cooperation between the two countries and the situation in the Middle East. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will receive the Kremlin chief in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh. According to the Kremlin, these talks will cover trade, investments and international politics.

Putin is trying to increase his influence in the Middle East. Experts say he is increasingly encouraged to do so as international criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza grows. “Russia does not have the same loyalty to Israel as the US, which allows it to express sympathy for both Israel and Palestine.”, experts James Nixey and Nikolay Kozhanov write on the website of the British think tank ‘Chatham House’. The Kremlin also indicates that the US is largely responsible for the failure to resolve the conflict between Israel and Palestine.

Putin is trying to draw a direct link between the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the Kremlin wants to give the impression that Ukraine is supplying weapons to Hamas. “According to our findings, Russia gave the terrorists trophy weapons captured during the fighting in Ukraine and manufactured in the US and EU.”

The aim of the campaign is to spread false accusations against Ukraine, writes the Ukrainian secret service. The Kremlin’s action also seems unlikely because Ukraine does not want to quarrel with its Western partners from whom it receives military and economic support.

The Kremlin doesn’t like the price of oil

The second important topic of his visit is the stabilization of the oil market. The Emirates and Saudi Arabia are both members of the OPEC+ oil cartel and Russia is a cooperation partner. Putin wants to talk about the oil production cut decided by OPEC+, as the oil price continues to fall despite the shortage. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the effect of such decisions sometimes comes with a delay. The EU and the US, as supporters of Ukraine, had tried to impose a price ceiling on Russian oil. However, this punitive measure had little effect.

If the investigators of the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands had their way, the two Arab rulers would probably not negotiate for long, but have their guest arrested on the spot. However, despite the arrest warrant against him, Putin has little to worry about being arrested in the Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as both countries are not parties to the court.

Interpol also has no recourse because the police organization may not violate national sovereign law. Putin can also hope for friendly states when he arrives. The Russian president’s plane may fly south over Azerbaijan, the Caspian Sea and Iran before traveling to the Persian Gulf to Riyadh and Dubai.

Another meeting planned

It was initially unclear whether Putin would also attend the UN climate conference COP28, currently taking place in Dubai, the Emirates. He will receive Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi for talks in Moscow on Thursday. Iran’s Irna news agency reported that Raisi traveled to Russia at Putin’s invitation. “Bilateral affairs, including economic relations, as well as discussions on regional and international issues, especially the situation in Gaza, will be high on the agenda,” the report said.

Putin last visited Saudi Arabia and the Emirates in 2019 before the corona pandemic, writes Russian state news agency Tass. The war of aggression against Ukraine has limited the Kremlin chief’s foreign contacts. The visit to the Gulf would be the first since the start of the war in 2022 that does not target direct allies such as China, Belarus or Kazakhstan.

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