Military expert Ralph D. Thiele talks about the sudden modernization of the Russian army: “We should expect swarms of Russian drones soon.”

The Russians have apparently succeeded in organizing material supplies. Russian propaganda channels show modern BTR-82A infantry fighting vehicles in the occupied territories of the Donetsk region. Modern T-90M battle tanks can also be seen in more and more places at the front.

For German military expert Ralph D. Thiele (70) of the Institute for Strategy, Politics, Security and Economic Consulting, one thing is certain: “In general, the Russian war economy is in full swing. Significant batches are being produced across the board every month, from tanks to drones and equipment for the increasingly important electromagnetic warfare.” Russian tank production quantitatively exceeds Western tank production by a factor of three.

Develop lethal systems

The range of successful drones would increase and effective ammunition would be integrated into longer-range carrier systems. Thiele sees the key to success in the mass of – including intelligent – ​​artillery ammunition and in the drone sector. Thiele: “We should expect swarms of drones to be deployed next year, orchestrated by artificial intelligence.”

Such drone swarms are also being developed in the US under the name ‘Super Swarm’. Coordinated drones attack a target in large numbers, some distracting air defenses, others scouting the situation and others carrying bombs.

Cheap technology from the Far East

Thiele describes the Western sanctions as a ‘non-starter’. The Russian economy has aligned its value chains with the Far East and the Bric states (Brazil, India, China, South Africa). In the Far East, Russia also has access to low-cost information technology for precision long-range missile and drone systems, for modern battlefield weapons – including intelligent munitions – and modern AI-enabled command and information systems.

Conversely, these markets benefited from cheap Russian raw materials. In a roundabout way, the West also continues to buy Russian raw materials, but now at a higher price. Western high-tech also continues to find its way to Russia in roundabout ways. “Russia can meet its technology needs in this way,” Thiele said.

Expert sees black

The Kremlin has announced a huge increase in the army budget for next year. Spending on the army must be increased by approximately 20 billion to 106 billion euros. This corresponds to approximately six percent of gross domestic product (GDP). By comparison, the US spends 3.5 percent of GDP on defense spending.

“Russian income is significant and can finance the war in the long term,” Thiele said. Moscow has prepared for a long war of attrition, but the West has not. Ukraine is losing people, materials and infrastructure – little by little its own exemplary motivation and, ultimately, probably also the continued support of the West. Thiele has a gloomy outlook for Ukraine: “It doesn’t look good.”