Hardly any weapons, ammunition and money: offensive fails – Ukraine is running out of time

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More than 21 months after the Russian invasion, helplessness and nervousness are spreading in Kiev as Western aid dwindles. Ukraine lacks weapons, ammunition, money and, in the near future, soldiers.

Does the West’s stated strategy of allowing Ukraine to defend and reconquer its territory, or at least to allow it to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength, still work? “We must be prepared for the long term,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (64) said recently in Berlin.

The course of the war cannot be predicted, but “the events around a negotiating table are inextricably linked to the situation on the battlefield.” Russian President Vladimir Putin (71) must realize that he cannot win on the battlefield.

“There will be no breakthrough”

However, Putin is far from suffering a serious defeat after the military disgrace in the first months of his war of aggression. After last year’s successes in Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson, Kiev’s commander-in-chief Valery Saluschnyj (50) said a year ago in the British ‘Economist’: ‘I need 300 tanks, 600 to 700 infantry fighting vehicles, 500 howitzers. Then it is completely realistic to get back on the phone from February 23.”

At the beginning of the month he told the magazine: “There will most likely not be a deep and beautiful breakthrough.” There is now a stalemate in trench warfare, comparable to the First World War.

“I’ve never seen anything like it in a movie.”

The Ukrainian advance was bogged down by dense minefields and Russian artillery fire. Saluschnyj reported the recapture of the village of Robotyne in the south, just in time for Ukrainian Independence Day on August 24. However, there has been little movement there since then and the city of Tokmak, which was important for the advance, is still in Russian hands more than twenty kilometers away.

Meanwhile, soldiers express their anger in the Ukrainian press. Company commander Mykola Melnyk, who was trained in Germany, told the internet portal censor.net: “The whole plan of the big counter-offensive was based on simple things: the Muscovites/Russians see the Bradley and Leopard and run away. That’s it.” His newly formed 47th Brigade was supposed to take Robotyne on the first day of operations. Instead, it took the Ukrainian forces over two and a half months. To this day, the front continues not far from the ruins of the village .

During the first attack, Melnyk lost his left leg when he stepped on a mine. “Every ten meters there was an explosion, explosion, explosion. This caused the sky to turn black. I’ve never seen anything like that in movies,” says the 38-year-old, describing the day he was injured. A lawyer in civilian life, he now hopes to walk again with the help of a prosthesis.

Shelters and fortifications need to be expanded

In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops are putting enormous pressure on the Ukrainian army. In the destroyed industrial city of Avdiivka, Ukrainian soldiers are threatened with encirclement. In the Kharkiv region, the front has dangerously approached the city of Kupyansk.

A daring Ukrainian advance in the Kherson region across the Dnipro River traps Russian forces, but the Ukrainians are under constant Russian bombardment with treacherous Russian glide bombs and artillery shells – with heavy casualties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky (45) now wants to expand shelters and fortifications along all parts of the front.

The Russians bring 200 tanks to the front every month

German military expert and Ukraine expert Nico Lange sees no “stalemate” in the situation and describes the situation as dynamic. “What we will experience also depends on how we continue to support Ukraine,” he told dpa. “Putin also has very significant military problems – we must help Ukraine quickly to confront him now in Ukraine and not give him time to recover, reorganize and rebuild. This would only make the problem bigger, longer and more expensive for us too.”

According to calculations by Ukrainian journalist Volodimir Datsenko, the peak of Western arms deliveries was in January/February. Since then the supply has decreased. While Russia can bring an average of 200 new or modernized armored vehicles to the front every month, on the Ukrainian side there are only about 60. When it comes to artillery pieces, Kiev receives one-twelfth of the Russian amount. And supported by North Korea and Iran, Russian artillery has more than twice as many shells.

More than 120,000 Russian dead

Ukrainian soldiers complain about increasing Russian superiority in surveillance and attack drones at the front. Russian jamming signals sometimes prevent the use of Western precision weapons. When it comes to Ukrainian air defense, everything depends on Western supplies.

The higher number of wounded and killed Russian soldiers may also not be decisive. Western observers estimate that the Russian army has already lost more than 120,000 casualties, while the Ukrainian army has suffered more than 70,000 casualties. But Russian mobilization also appears to be considerably more effective. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is now said to be in the mid-forties, and in some brigades even in the mid-fifties. Despite calls from Saluzhny and others, the government continues to shy away from calling up 18- to 27-year-olds.

Zelensky refuses to admit his failure

At least Zelensky now promised the military a reform of the draft laws. The announcement of the reform is seen as a concession to the soldiers, who have largely been deployed to the front without being relieved since the start of the Russian war of aggression about 21 months ago.

Dissatisfaction with the progress of the war also leads to tensions in politics. The president refuses to publicly admit that the counteroffensive has failed. After his interview, he clearly reprimanded Salushnyj and warned the commanders against political ambitions. (SDA)

Source: Blick