The Dutch election winner wants Nexit – the risk of a domino effect is increasing: is Wilders driving the EU to collapse?

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Right-wing foreign politician Geert Wilders (60) clearly won the House of Representatives elections on Wednesday and has a good chance of becoming prime minister. He promises an end to immigration, a fight against Islam and an exit from the EU. He has announced that he will follow Britain’s example and vote on Nexit in a “mandatory referendum”.

What are the chances of this happening and what are the consequences for Europe? And: is there now a major exodus from the EU throughout Europe? Blick answers the most important questions.

Brussels would lose its fourth net contributor. According to the German Economic Institute in Cologne, the country was one of the EU’s largest financiers last year with a budget balance of 3.2 billion euros, after Germany (19.7 billion), France (10 billion) and Italy (3.9 billion). billion).

Brexit shows what consequences a withdrawal from the EU can have. Initially there were difficult, spiteful negotiations, and after the withdrawal the economy partially collapsed. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the import and export of goods fell from 129.4 billion euros to 106.1 billion euros between 2015 and 2022. Jonathan Slapin (43), professor of European politics at the University of Zurich, makes it clear: “The consequences would be catastrophic.”

The small country would be in a similar situation to Switzerland and would have to seek other cooperation with European countries so as not to be isolated by border controls. Another possibility would be coordination and cooperation with Great Britain, which is only 90 kilometers away on the Dover Strait.

The road to a referendum leads through a majority in parliament. This will probably only happen if Wilders can enter into a coalition with other parties and convince them to vote. But all major parties support the EU.

Wilders already showed in 2016 that he was serious about leaving the EU when he submitted a request for a referendum. At the time, only 14 out of 150 parliamentarians voted in favor.

With the election of Wilders, the Dutch have shown that they want change. Nevertheless, Jonathan Slapin considers the chance of a Nexit to be ‘zero’.

The Dutch are committed EU citizens, as shown by a Eurobarometer survey this spring. At 77 percent, their identification with the EU is clearly above the EU average of 72 percent. Only 16 percent expressed negative views. The Netherlands is one of the six original member states.

However, Britain has shown that there can be surprises. Then Prime Minister David Cameron (57) let the British vote on leaving the EU in 2016, assuming this would be rejected. The shot backfired on him.

Anti-EU movements in other countries could get a boost from Wilder’s election, but further exit votes are not expected at this time. Even Wilders’ benefactors – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (60), French right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen (55) and German AfD leader Alice Weidel (44) – support the idea of ​​an EU.

It is possible that certain countries such as Hungary, Italy, Slovakia and Poland – as well as France if Le Pen is elected president – ​​would increase pressure to restructure the EU. They call for tougher action, especially when it comes to migration.

Slapin: “Parties that pursue exit politics will struggle to find a majority and build coalitions.” Above all, the difficult Brexit and the Ukraine war have brought Europeans closer together again.

Source: Blick