Middle East expert on the hostage deal: “Hamas is pursuing a geopolitical strategy” AfD, Orban and Le Pen congratulate: Dutch right-wing populist Wilders on the brink of election victory

Hamas and Israel have agreed to a deal. Originally from Thursday, now from Friday at the earliest, there will be a gradual exchange of Israeli hostages with Palestinian prisoners. At the same time, there must be a temporary ceasefire. How realistic do you think it is that this exchange will actually take place?
Margaretha Johannsen: The exchange happens step by step. I think at least a few hostages can be freed. However, it is difficult to say whether the exchange can be completed as the warring sides agreed. It always depends on what decisions the people behind this conflict, i.e. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas leaders in Qatar, make. When you change your mind, change your strategy, everything turns out differently than you think.

Hamas deliberately took hostages on October 7 to use them as leverage. Why do you think she agreed to this deal now? What strategy does she follow?
I imagine that Hamas is pursuing a long-term geopolitical strategy. It wants to make a name for itself internationally and acquire a reputation as a reliable trading partner that is willing to make compromises. Despite all the support that Israel enjoys in the Western world, we should not forget that Hamas arouses a lot of sympathy, especially in third world countries. For example in African countries or India. When Hamas releases hostages, especially children and women, it is very well received in these countries. It is almost seen as a humanitarian gesture

What kind of prisoners does Israel release in exchange for the hostages?
We don’t know that yet. I assume they will be “harmless” prisoners. For example, young people who have been arrested by the Israeli army in recent years for throwing stones at tanks. You have to imagine this: these young people were imprisoned for a very long time without a court order, without a trial, because they threw stones. So for now it is a good thing that these prisoners are released.

What does the agreement mean for Israel?
It’s a partial success. The hostages’ relatives have long urged their state to facilitate an exchange. They have also been calling for a ceasefire for some time. After all, some hostages have already died in captivity. The Israeli state, on the other hand, has so far shown no interest in such a deal. But Israel was under pressure from all sides, especially from the US. Ultimately, Netanyahu agreed not to alienate his international partners.

What influence will the hostage agreement have on the further course of the war?
I can only speculate about that too. I imagine the situation will calm down a bit. Maybe even for the next few years, until the conflict escalates again. But it is just as likely that the war will continue as before. Ultimately, Israel set itself the goal of destroying Hamas. And that is virtually impossible. It could kill the Hamas fighters in the Gaza Strip. But the masterminds, the top of this terrorist organization, remain untouched. In any case, without a lasting, fair solution for both sides, there will never be peace in this region