Historic elections in the Netherlands: neck-and-neck race expected

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The three favorites are: the right-wing populists, the first red-green alliance and Rutte’s VVD party – but now for the first time with a woman at the top. The polls show that there is an exciting neck-and-neck race between the three parties, each with 15 to 19 percent of the votes.

Approximately 13.3 eligible voters are called upon to elect the 150 members of the House of Representatives. The first predictions are expected immediately after the polling stations close at 9 p.m.

According to the polls, right-wing populist Geert Wilders (60) and his Freedom Party (PVV) are among the favorites to win the elections for the first time. The right-liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is roughly on par with the PVV.

Top candidate Dilan Yesilgöz (46) wants to succeed her party colleague Mark Rutte and thus become the first woman to lead the cabinet in The Hague. Yesilgöz does not rule out a collaboration with right winger Wilders. According to election observers, this made Wilders’ PVV socially acceptable.

According to the studies, the Social Democrats and the Greens also have a chance of success. They are acting as an alliance for the first time and want to prevent the feared shift to the right with their top candidate, former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans (62).

However, the chance that right-wing extremist Wilders will actually become the new head of government is small. Hardly anyone wants to work together in a coalition under Prime Minister Wilders. And according to the polls, no party can win an absolute majority.

The topics of this election campaign were migration, housing shortages and poverty. The right-wing parties in particular promised to drastically reduce the influx of labor migrants, refugees and also foreign students.

The elections are characterized by a major crisis of confidence. Less than half of Dutch people still have confidence in politics, according to research by the renowned Social-Cultural Research Institute. More than 60 percent are dissatisfied with the way their country is governed. Many citizens testify that the state and politicians have failed in the areas of migration, health care, housing and social security.

The new party New Social Contract led by Pieter Omtzigt (49) can also expect electoral success. The former Christian Democrat and former member of parliament is committed to a new leadership culture and can play a decisive role in forming a government.

The outcome is difficult to predict, says election researcher Peter Kanne of the I&O Research Institute. “Many will choose strategically.” The election researcher expects that right-wing voters will vote for Wilders and his hard anti-migration policy in order to enforce the right-wing coalition possible. On the other hand, other voters would now consider voting for the red-green alliance to avoid a coalition with Wilders.

Wilders was particularly mild during the election campaign. Therefore, he put his controversial views against Islam on hold. “It’s not a priority right now,” he said. “I am available as prime minister.” But his party program remains clear and calls for a ban on mosques and the Koran and for ‘Nexit’, the withdrawal of the Netherlands from the EU.

Presumably at least three parties will have to come together to form a coalition to reach a majority. Observers already expect extremely difficult coalition negotiations – regardless of the election results. After the previous elections, in March 2021, it took almost ten months before right-liberal Mark Rutte could present his fourth cabinet.

But after just eighteen months, the centre-right coalition collapsed in the summer due to the dispute over migration policy. Rutte then announced his departure from national politics. He has been prime minister in the kingdom for about thirteen years, longer than anyone before him. He wants to remain in office until a new government is formed.

(SDA)

Source: Blick