US withdraws support: is this the death knell for Ukraine?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (45) himself told Congress at the end of September: “If we do not get the support, we will lose the war.” And in fact, things don’t look good for Ukraine. The EU will also fall short of its target of supplying Ukraine with one million artillery shells by March 2024. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (63) said this on Tuesday during an EU meeting in Brussels.

Ukraine still has some room for maneuver

Ukraine has some leeway militarily: Under previous spending bills passed by Congress, Biden can still request about $5.6 billion in equipment from military reserves. By comparison, in June, according to the US State Department, $500 million was enough to finance Bradley and Stryker vehicles, anti-aircraft munitions, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, anti-tank weapons, anti-radiation missiles and precision air munitions.

The lack of payments from the US is not only about a possible military defeat for Ukraine, but also an economic and humanitarian defeat. It is unclear whether the Biden administration still has resources to support Ukraine’s budget and meet the needs of the country’s millions of refugees.

Moreover, Ukraine faces a huge budget deficit of $35 billion next year, only a third of which is expected to be covered by its other major donor, the EU. The former Soviet state depends on American money to run its government. If additional U.S. economic aid to Ukraine is not approved, the country will likely be forced to cut large numbers of government workers and services, U.S. officials warned last week.

The US wants to prevent Putin’s victory at all costs

“At this point, there is no more funding for direct budget support,” Erin McKee, 39, deputy administrator for Europe and Eurasia at the U.S. Agency for International Development, told senators on the Foreign Relations Committee. “Without additional resources, the Ukrainian government would have to take emergency measures, such as printing money or not paying key salaries, which could lead to hyperinflation and have serious consequences for the war effort.”

McKee added: “Ukraine’s economic stability is as important as winning the war. If the economy collapses, Putin wins.” A scenario that the Biden administration wants to avoid at all costs.