Five huge problems facing Zelenskyj The Israeli army finds significantly fewer Hamas terrorists in Shifa hospital than expected

Ukraine brings armored technology across the Dnipro River and holds the position in the hotly contested city of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing the government for EU accession negotiations.

You might think that things are going very well for Ukraine. But according to conflict observer Nikita Gerasimov of the Free University of Berlin, Zelenskyj faces five major problems. For Watson, Gerasimov classifies these and at the end gives a vision of possible solutions.

Danger of trench warfare

Miles of trenches, mud, blood, endless waiting for the next battle, the years fly by. Anyone who paid attention in history class remembers stories about trench warfare in the First World War.

“Like the First World War, the war in Ukraine has become a static trench battle on most parts of the front,” Gerasimov warns. According to him, the parties achieved at most minor local successes. But at the cost of terrible losses that have no relation whatsoever to the conquered square meters.

“Many sections are constantly switching controls back and forth because neither side can get stuck. The stalemate occurred mainly because defensive assets dominated offensive capabilities,” he explained. On the one hand, both sides have dispersed, massively developed defense lines and at the same time they do not have sufficient offensive capacity to make major breakthroughs.

“This turns the war into a static material battle in the trenches, which at most amounts to a faster crushing of human and technical resources,” says the conflict observer. And here Russia has an advantage with its greater human resources. But the Ukrainian army is not without a chance.

According to the expert, Ukraine could have an advantage in terms of material supplies because in theory it has the entire Western military bloc behind it – provided the political will remains. Because things are shaky right now, especially in the US.

“In particular, the approaching US presidential elections in 2024 could be decisive for whether the West can and will continue to provide technical support,” Gerasimov said. His conclusion is: Overall, a long trench war brings greater dangers to Ukraine, because the war is raging on Ukrainian territory and the level of destruction on Ukrainian territory is increasing from week to week.

Deadly minefields

Ukraine is now considered “the largest minefield” in the world. Today, about 40 percent of Ukraine’s total land area would be mined, explains Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. “Soldiers on both sides describe the minefields as the greatest horror,” Gerasimov said.

Because: death lurks invisibly beneath your feet. The conflict observer knows of cases in which entire units get lost in the minefields and soldiers become victims one after the other.

The biggest problem is the size of the minefields. In some sections they would be up to 20 kilometers wide. Even modern demining systems manage to clear paths of up to several hundred meters at a time, Gerasimov says. As a result, there is de facto no effective and rapid resolution of minefields. This also had a huge impact on the Ukrainian offensive.

Beginning of the rainy season

The mud and rain season is approaching. In Eastern Europe often known as “Rasputiza”. According to Gerasimov, this exacerbates the effect of trench warfare. “Heavy military technology is sinking into the mud. “Tank columns get stuck in the middle of sodden fields and become targets for artillery and drones,” he explains. This makes deep offensive operations even more difficult or even impossible.

Increasing hunger for ammunition

Military production capabilities in Russia, Ukraine and the West are already reaching their limits, says Gerasimov. The warehouses are empty. Production capacity cannot keep up.

Accordingly, intensive artillery preparation for large-scale operations is hardly possible anymore, or must be carefully saved before each action. According to the expert, an expansion of production lines would be possible in theory, but depending on the country, this will fail due to political will or economic opportunities.

He says:

American transport planes are already being diverted to Israel instead of flying to Ukraine. The US also fears a possible conflict between China and Taiwan in the medium term, for which military capabilities are also withheld. In other words, it is not foreseeable that the hunger for ammunition can be overcome in the near future.

Disputes between Zelensky and Saluzhny

Ukraine has been defending itself against Russia’s war of aggression for more than twenty months. So far, the leadership in Kiev has always looked united. But reports of a possible conflict between the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian General Staff are gaining momentum.

“These have increased significantly in terms of content in recent weeks,” says Gerasimov. The respective interviews between Zelensky and army chief Valery Zalushny fuel the rumors. According to the expert, their assessment of the war differs ‘diametrically’.

In other words: the optimistic idealist Zelensky meets the pragmatic realist Saluschny. There is unwavering belief in the success of the offensive. The other clarifies: No further progress can be expected. According to Saluzhnyj, the ground war in Ukraine has come to a standstill.

“There have also been dismissals in the general staff, “suspicious accidents” by high-ranking Saluschny supporters – these are several pieces of the puzzle that, taken as a whole, create a disturbing picture of potentially major discrepancies in Kiev,” says Gerasimov. .

Discrepancies are exacerbated by the failed summer offensive because the search for the perpetrator probably started internally.

Recently, a close advisor to Commander-in-Chief Saluzhny died when one of his birthday presents exploded. It is said that the recipient thought the grenades were dummies. The investigation is ongoing.

Many problems, few options for Zelensky

One thing is certain: according to Gerasimov, there is no ready-made solution for a quick military victory. Salushnyj spoke of a sudden technological advance that could break the military balance and deliver victory. However, it remains unclear what specific means could provide this advantage against adversaries like Russia, the expert says.

According to Gerasimov, many weapons that were hailed as game-changers, whether Himar’s multiple rocket launchers, Leopard tanks or ATACMS missiles, failed to make the big breakthrough. “The Western F-16 fighter jets will not be able to do this either,” he predicts.

Gerasimov’s conclusion is that preparatory talks for possible peace negotiations are the logical consequence under these circumstances. According to media reports, these have now started behind the scenes.

Other experts argue that the current Western military support was not sufficient for victory and that that is why Ukraine found itself in this “stalemate”.