Where the fighting is going on: new hope after surprising successes

Andriy Yermak (51), chief of staff of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (45), has disclosed that the Ukrainian armed forces have a base in the Kherson region on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. “Despite all expectations, Ukrainian forces have gained a foothold on the left-eastern bank of the Dnipro,” he said. Ukraine has thus created a new line of attack towards Crimea. “Step by step, Crimea is being demilitarized,” Yermak added in a speech at the Hudson Institute think tank in the United States. «We have completed 70 percent of the route. And our counter-offensive is developing well.”

The statements were published on the Ukrainian president’s website. This is a bitter blow to Russian warfare. Russian forces have focused on eastern Ukraine since the planned blitzkrieg from Belarus to the capital Kiev in spring 2022 failed. The Dnipro was also an important milestone for the Russian forces and was hotly contested. The Russian military said last week that its forces had thwarted a Ukrainian attempt to establish a beachhead on the eastern bank and nearby islands. They are said to have killed 500 Ukrainian soldiers.

The General Staff of Ukraine reported a large number of Russian attacks near Avdiivka and Mariinka on Tuesday evening. In his late-night video address, Zelensky said the Russian attacks were “very intense.” “Russia is already losing men and equipment near Avdiivka, faster and on a larger scale than in Bakhmut,” he said, referring to months of heavy fighting that began in May during Russia’s capture of the eastern city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valeriy Salushnyi, 50, said on November 13 during a conversation with Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown, 61, that the Avdiivka, Kupiansk and Marinka directions were the most affected, but pointed out that that the Ukrainian armed forces are continuing their offensive actions in unspecified sectors of the front – a tactical maneuver that leaves their opponents in the dark.

No mention of Avdiivka was made in official Russian reports on the fighting in the east, although prominent Russian war blogger Rybar said “some progress” had been made in positions around the city.

According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia is trying to enforce military success near the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk. In recent weeks, the Russian military has stepped up its attacks in the Donetsk area. Even though there are many casualties among soldiers and vehicles, the number of attackers is putting pressure on the Ukrainian defenders.

The commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky (58), emphasized that the Russian armed forces are simultaneously carrying out offensive actions in different directions and, in particular, are trying to regain the initiative north and south of Bakhmut. However, the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assumes that the Russian armed forces no longer have the strength to gain total control over new areas.

The situation could become even more difficult for both sides: a brutal winter is inexorably approaching and is already casting its icy shadow on the decisive war strategies in Ukraine. Both the Russian and Ukrainian operations are disrupted by bad weather conditions such as mud and falling leaves.

There is a second problem: Western observers have been questioning the military capabilities of the Russian army for months. And Ukraine is desperate for Western support and urgently needed weapons. However, that will not happen, as German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (63) recently confirmed. According to him, the EU will miss its target of delivering one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March. “One million will not be achieved, we have to assume that.”