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The Montefusco Spinesi sports field is not an area where great successes are celebrated. An artificial grass field in a suburb of Naples, more black than green, thick plastic plates behind the goal, the stands just like concrete. A place like many in Italy. What makes Montefusco Spinesi so special: football is played here in the middle of what is probably the most dangerous volcano in Europe. Tonight, clouds of smoke will again rise from the nearby ground. It smells like rotten eggs. People are used to that. But recently their concerns have increased significantly.

The densely populated region west of the megacity has been plagued by small and large earthquakes for months: more than 1,500 since the beginning of September alone. Usually just a tremor lasting a few seconds, sometimes accompanied by a rumbling underground, without anything significant happening so far. But the strongest earthquake had a magnitude of 4.2. Many residents fear these are signs of an outbreak. Gerardo Cerino (55), who keeps an eye on his son during football training, says: “I grew up here. But the fear has been going on for a few weeks now.”

The area here has danger in its name: Campi Flegrei. Literally translated: burning fields. Science, with a little more restraint, has changed this to the Phlegraean Fields. The local volcano is not a well-formed mountain like Vesuvius, which has so beautifully dominated the panorama of Naples since the spectacular eruption on Pompeii in 79. At the Campi Flegrei the danger lies in the ground, you don’t see it: a total area of ​​150 square kilometer consisting of dents and craters, largely hidden in the sea.

Explosion hazard in the ground

On the mainland, the risk is most palpable in the port city of Pozzuoli, a few kilometers from the football field. In the Solfatara crater field, the earth bubbles away, smoke rises, the water vapor mixes with carbon dioxide and sulfur – hence the smell of rotten eggs. Until a few years ago, the Solfatara was a tourist attraction. It has been a prohibited area since 2017, when a couple with their 11-year-old son died in the field. The spectacle can now only be viewed from a hill. Next to it is a luxury hotel with a view far out to sea.

39,000 years ago this was the scene of the largest volcanic eruption in Europe in the past hundred thousand years. At that time, almost all life was destroyed in large parts of what is now southern Italy. The ash flew to what is now Russia. From this time on, the term supervolcano for the Campi Flegrei is justified. Supervolcanoes are characterized by a particularly large magma chamber and enormous violence: unlike normal volcanoes, they literally explode.

The last eruption on the Campi Flegrei was in 1538. Previously, the ground had gradually risen several meters over a period of 70 years due to magma waves. This is also the scenario today: the ground has been bulging again for seven decades. In Pozzuoli you can see this because the quay wall in the harbor is a few meters higher than before: it is difficult for fishermen to reach it from their boats.

“This is probably the most observed volcano in the world.”

At the observatory of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Naples, everything is closely monitored: the earthquakes, the rise and fall of the ground, the composition of the smoke. Geophysicist Giovanni Macedonio stands at one of the screens. “This is probably the most observed volcano in the world,” says the 64-year-old. Based on the data, most experts expect the bottom to continue to bulge. This means: more tension, more cracks, more fractures, more vibrations. Until at some point it might become too much.

But when, what and if anything will happen at all, no one knows. It doesn’t have to be an outburst. It is also possible that a major earthquake or steam explosion will occur in the middle of the city with major consequences. But it is also conceivable that the supervolcano will almost completely calm down again. Be that as it may, Macedonio is confident that if the worst gets out of hand, the population can be brought to safety in time. 48 hours should be enough to evacuate more than 360,000 people living in the immediate danger zone.

The suitcases are packed

Since 2012, the region has been under a yellow alert: increased vigilance. After the many earthquakes in recent months, there is now speculation that it will soon turn orange. The Minister of Civil Protection of the Italian right-wing government, Nello Musumeci, has already indicated this. In Rome it has already been decided that civil protection for the Campi Flegrei will receive an additional 52 million euros.

In the neighborhood, people are preparing to stay on the safe side. 36-year-old housewife Silvana Di Dio is among those who have already packed a suitcase. He’s standing in the hallway at home. “Only the basic necessities: clothing, medicine, cosmetics. In ten minutes we will be ready to leave,” says the mother of two. The parish of San Gennaro on the Solfatara has also already taken precautions. The church door now remains open during church services. This way, if something happens, the believers should come out faster.

(with material from dpa)