Does Hezbollah declare war on Israel today? What to expect from Nasrallah’s speech China bids farewell to former Prime Minister Li Keqiang

The usually talkative Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah remained silent for almost four weeks. Sources in Beirut assume that there are differences between the eloquent Shiite leader and the Iranian regime, which determines the strategy of the militia, which is equipped with tens of thousands of missiles.

The fact that the man with the bushy beard is now speaking could mean that a decision has been made about Hezbollah’s participation in the war. But this is also not certain. All that is known is that the fighting on the Lebanese-Israeli border is becoming increasingly violent.

On Thursday, the pro-Iranian Shiite militia simultaneously attacked 19 Israeli military posts in the Galilee highlands and used a kamikaze drone for the first time. The sharpest escalation of violence in the region yet will likely be linked to the upcoming Nasrallah speech.

The Lebanese-Palestinian branch of Hamas also fired twelve rockets at Kiryat Shimona yesterday. Two Israelis were seriously injured in the small town on the western slopes of the Golan Heights. Israeli warplanes and helicopters then attacked Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon for hours.

Memories of 2006 come flooding back

Was this the start of the great war between Israel and Hezbollah that had been feared for weeks? , asked dailies in Beirut today – and think of the year 2006: Hezbollah fighters kidnapped two Israeli soldiers to Lebanon. As part of Operation ‘Fair Wages’, the Israeli Air Force subsequently destroyed large parts of southern Lebanon, as well as Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut.

Just like Hamas at this moment, Hezbollah must also be ‘wiped off the face of the earth’. After 33 days of war, Israel had to agree to a ceasefire under American pressure. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was celebrated as a folk hero at the time.

Most Lebanese fear history is repeating itself. The desperately poor Mediterranean republic was unlikely to survive another Israeli mass bombardment. At least in American government circles, there is no expectation that the war will spread. “We don’t see any signs of that at this time,” Wise House security spokesman John Kirby said yesterday.

Support for Hamas

An official spokesman for Hezbollah characterized Nasrallah’s speech, scheduled for 3 p.m. local time (2 p.m. Swiss time), as an event to honor those who died in the “struggle to defend Lebanon and in support of the Palestinian people and their holy places.”

Hamas was not mentioned. Which might not mean anything. There are ample signs that relative restraint on the Lebanese-Israeli border has been abandoned. In addition, Hezbollah fighters published a letter addressed to Nasrallah on Wednesday, which was also addressed to the fighters in the Gaza Strip. “Our hand is on the trigger just like yours,” it said. And: “Make sure that your martyrs and ours are on their way to Jerusalem.”

These types of letters are extremely rare, analyzes political scientist Amal Saad, lecturer at Cardiff University. They last appeared in 2006 and a year later, when Hezbollah was fighting Islamic State in Syria. (bzbasel.ch)