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Artillery determines the war in Ukraine. Both Ukrainian defenders and Russian assault troops rely on artillery shells to keep the enemy at bay and prevent advances. About 80 percent of the losses since Kremlin forces began their invasion can be attributed to artillery fire, security expert Guy McCardle told the US magazine Newsweek in July.

And Russia has grown significantly in this area recently – with the support of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. Nearly two weeks ago, US intelligence agencies reported that North Korea had delivered more than a thousand containers of military equipment and ammunition to Russia. It apparently contained hundreds of thousands of artillery shells, as the head of Estonian military intelligence, Ants Kiviselg, suspected.

North Korea supplies Russia with a month’s worth of artillery ammunition

The deliveries were preceded by a diplomatic offensive between Russia and North Korea in recent weeks, culminating in a meeting between Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in Russia in mid-September. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had previously traveled to the East Asian country and inspected weapons there. Putin’s meeting with Kim fueled speculation about arms deals between the two despots. The Russian president raised his glass “to the future strengthening of cooperation and friendship between our countries.”

“If you assume that a shipping container contains 300 to 350 pieces of artillery ammunition, you can say that a total of 300,000 to 350,000 pieces have been delivered,” Kiviselg said at a press conference at the Estonian Ministry of Defense last Friday. Russia is currently firing about 10,000 artillery shells per day in Ukraine. The North Korean supplies would cover the needs of Russian forces for about a month.

Estimates of the need for artillery shells vary. According to Ukrainian information, Russia uses about 15,000 artillery shells daily in the current phase of the war. By comparison, last summer Kremlin forces are said to have used between 45,000 and 80,000 bullets every day. During the entire first year of the war, Russia is said to have fired between ten and eleven million artillery shells.

Is Russia facing an ammunition shortage?

According to Ukrainian military expert Petro Chernyk, Russia went to war against Ukraine with a stockpile of 15 to 20 million artillery shells. In addition, the Russian arms industry produces up to 130,000 rounds per month. But now Russia is apparently running out of ammunition, which could explain why Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin has to make deals with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

However, Russia has significantly increased domestic production: up to two million bullets will be produced annually over the next two years, Reuters news agency reported in early September, citing Western officials. Yet this is “not a very strong position,” Reuters quotes from a background conversation.

Now it depends on how long Pyongyang can continue delivering. “Even 50,000 to 100,000 artillery shells per month from North Korea will make a difference on the battlefield if they can be sustained,” security expert Rob Lee of the American think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute wrote on the X platform, formerly Twitter.

Western military aid is important for Kiev

In any case, Western military experts assumed that Russia could guarantee “sufficient rates of fire” given its own production and North Korean support, writes the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW). A widespread shortage of Russian armed forces is not foreseeable. And even a decrease in the rate of fire would not in itself provide an advantage to Ukrainian forces.

“The extent to which international partners support Ukraine’s ability to maintain effective firepower compared to the Russian armed forces will be a decisive factor for their respective capabilities in 2024,” the ISW assesses the situation.

This is what the West delivered to Ukraine

Ukraine already uses more artillery shells than the West can supply. As part of the counter-offensive, which has been running since the summer, Kiev’s troops are firing an average of around 6,000 artillery shells every day. And the military is demanding more: according to Ukrainian MP Oleksandra Ustinova, the armed forces want to fire up to 10,000 projectiles per day. Rheinmetall boss Armin Papperger estimates that Ukraine needs about 1.5 million bullets annually.

But Kiev’s allies are lagging behind in delivering supplies. The US Department of Defense says it has delivered about two million artillery shells to Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion. This year alone, the European Union has supplied Ukraine with a quarter of a million bullets. And Germany also provides significant support to the Ukrainian artillery. To date, military assistance in this area includes the following deliveries (as of October 20, 2023):

European production is lagging behind

All this is probably just a drop in the ocean. Experts are sure that the production of artillery ammunition in the US and Europe will need to be significantly increased to continue to meet Ukrainian needs in the future. But at the beginning of the year, there was only production capacity in Europe for about 300,000 shots per year.

In the best case, more than two million would have to be produced. This goal still seems far away. According to director Papperger, Rheinmetall alone has a backlog of ammunition orders worth more than ten billion euros. His company wants to produce 600,000 shots next year.

The United States currently produces more than 28,000 artillery shells per month, and that number is expected to rise to about 100,000 artillery shells by 2025, Pentagon procurement chief William LaPlante told CNN.

Given Western production problems, North Korea’s supplies to Russia should not be underestimated. Especially since the Kremlin reportedly still has more than four million bullets in its depots, as Estonian military intelligence suspects. Given the currently relatively low rate of fire of over 10,000 rounds per day, that would be well over a year’s supply. “The deliveries from North Korea indicate that Russia wants to continue its war in Ukraine for a long time,” said intelligence chief Kiviselg.

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