Why Israel is delaying the ground offensive – 6 possible reasons for Netanyahu’s serious mistakes

There is great concern about a forest fire in the Middle East. Israel’s invasion of the Gaza Strip could lead to ‘genocide of unprecedented proportions’, the Arab League has warned. According to the New York Times, Joe Biden exerted enormous pressure on the Israeli war cabinet.

Above all, the US president wants to avoid a two-front war with Hezbollah, which poses a greater threat than Hamas. Militarily, the Islamist-Shia terrorist organization is far superior to Hamas, with a reported 150,000 explosive rockets.

But the postponement of the planned ground offensive is probably not only for military reasons.

What can make Israel hesitate:

Release of the hostages

By waiting, Israel buys time for hostage negotiations. There are still more than 200 hostages held by Hamas, including American citizens. The ground operation is likely to reduce the chances of survival as Hamas claims to be hiding the hostages in several locations.

Protection of the civilian population

The Israeli army has repeatedly called on people in the Gaza Strip to flee to the south of the region ahead of the planned ground offensive. According to the Israeli army, Hamas members are barricading themselves in schools, mosques and civilian homes – especially in the most densely populated areas of the northern Gaza Strip.

According to the UN, about a million of the 2.3 million inhabitants are affected by the mass exodus. Evacuating so many people in an area devastated by rocket fire and with poor infrastructure is a challenge that takes time.

Hamas reportedly tried to prevent the evacuation of residents. Yet 600,000 people have now responded to the call.

Nevertheless, Joe Biden warned against acting hastily to avoid civilian casualties. Meanwhile, aid groups are calling for a safe corridor to the West Bank.

Unpredictable tunnel system

Hamas’s extremely complex tunnel system is a nightmare for Israeli forces. It is so vast that it resembles a hidden city under Gaza. Some tunnels are 40 meters deep underground and can therefore protect Hamas fighters from air attacks. At the same time, missiles can be hidden.

Military expert John Spencer assumes that the so-called terror tunnels will be an important part of Hamas’ “guerrilla strategy” in a counter-offensive. Fighters can move underground, appear suddenly, attack and disappear back into the tunnel. In addition, the underground city is connected to civilian locations such as schools, hospitals and mosques.

Bloody urban warfare

Experts agree that a ground offensive will lead to bloody house-to-house fighting. They refer to the bloody fighting around Fallujah during the 2004 Iraq war. House-to-house wars are time-consuming and involve high casualties. Israeli Defense Minister Joav Galant expects months of fighting: “It may take a month, two or three, but eventually there will be no more Hamas.”

The Israeli army has been training its soldiers in urban warfare for years. However, the operation remains very risky, especially because of the complex tunnel system.

Military expert Fabian Hinz tells SRF:

In addition, a large number of reservists were called up, who reportedly did not receive the necessary equipment.

Tense relations between government and army

“There is a crisis of confidence between Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli army,” Israeli media report. The army accuses the government of not having foreseen Hamas’ attack. The tense relationship would make cooperation difficult, writes Nahum Barnea, one of Israel’s best-known journalists, in the daily Yedioth Ahronoth.

Friction existed even before the Hamas attack as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) opposed the government over its controversial judicial reform.

Concerns about occupancy

An important question Israel must ask itself: What happens if Hamas suffers a serious blow? Will the Gaza Strip be occupied?

Political experts criticize Israel’s lack of a post-invasion plan and warn of renewed occupation. Because this would further fuel terrorism.