“Most important offensive since January”: why Russia wants to capture Avdiivka by any means necessary

Russia finally wants to take over all of Donetsk

The symbolic meaning should not be underestimated. Since the two warring parties have been fighting over the city for almost a decade, a victory for Russia would be of great importance. Especially for Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (68), who ordered an attack on Avdiivka last fall – which made little progress.

The city also has great strategic importance. Although still under Ukrainian control, it is right on the current frontline. Russia’s goal appears to be to encircle the city. This could form the basis for the broader goal of gaining control of the entire Donetsk region, one of the five Ukrainian provinces that Moscow has “annexed.”

Moreover, the Russian forces are likely to try to capture the Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka in the east, in order to have a clear path in the south. And because of its proximity to Donetsk – the cities are only 15 kilometers apart – Avdiivka is an important military base for Ukraine. A railway line connects the city with western Ukraine, through which Ukrainian troops receive supplies. Therefore, one of the first Russian attacks took place on this railway in October.

However, the connection could not be completely broken. According to the “Frontline Intelligence” platform, Russian troops lost 109 armored vehicles and numerous soldiers in this project. The Ukrainians have strengthened their defenses around the city since 2014, and the Russian army can barely get through.

Do the Russians have more material than they thought?

But the Russians can’t imagine giving up, Atlantic Council analysts said. “Russia’s Avdiivka offensive is a large-scale operation that reflects Moscow’s desire to regain the initiative as the war with Ukraine passes the 20-month mark.” According to British intelligence, the new attacks on the city are the “most significant offensive operation since January”.

This shows that things are not as bad as many Western observers assume for the Russian military. Despite enormous losses in the past year and a half, Russia still has no shortage of resources to continue the war. There are increasing reports from Russian soldiers of a shortage of weapons, ammunition and capable command personnel. But the gaps are always filled in one way or another. At the beginning of this week it was announced that Russia now also wants to send female soldiers to the front.

Military forces are not enough for success

The battle for Avdiivka is far from over, but Russian success remains doubtful. American military analyst Michael Kofman says in his podcast: “The attacks on the city show that the quality of Russian warfare and the available equipment are not sufficient to effectively break the Ukrainian defense lines.”

Without further mobilization, Russia would not be able to perform significant offensive operations. However, Ukraine must maintain the pressure and Russia should not be underestimated, Kofman concludes.