Oil, gas and coal will soon be surpassed by renewable energies US: Man tries to switch off machines during a flight and is arrested

More electric cars, more heat pumps, more solar photovoltaics – according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The energy supply in 2030 will be significantly different from today. But some factors in energy development are still quite uncertain.

The Paris organization announced this on Tuesday when publishing its energy forecasts for this year. But the report not only looks at the electricity mix of the future, but also takes security and climate change into account.

The central points:

More heat pumps, less fossil energy

In concrete terms, the IEA predicts that there will be about ten times as many electric cars on the road and that heat pumps and other electric heating systems will be sold more often worldwide than fossil fuel boilers.

IEA writes in its energy report:

By 2030, clean energy is expected to be significantly more represented in the electricity mix, by almost 50 percent, than is currently the case. Currently they make up about 30 percent.

More electricity through photovoltaic solar energy

Solar photovoltaics will then generate more electricity than the entire US energy system today. Investments in offshore wind energy projects alone would be three times as high as in new power plants running on coal or gas.

The demand for coal, oil and natural gas will soon be reached

According to the IEA, the increase in renewable energy sources has an impact on fossil fuels, as do structural economic changes. For the first time, the energy outlook sees demand for coal, oil and natural gas peaking this decade based on the current political framework.

The highest level of energy-related CO₂ emissions could then be emitted as early as 2025 By 2030, fossils will account for only 73 percent of the world’s energy supply, instead of the 80 percent they have had for decades.

The 1.5 degree target can only be achieved through clear measures

But according to the IEA, the appetite for fossil fuels remains far too great to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times.

The organization proposes to triple the global capacity of renewable energy sources, significantly increase the pace of energy efficiency improvements and cut methane emissions from fossil fuels by three-quarters.

Mechanisms should also be created to increase investments in clean energy in poorer countries. Ultimately, fossils should be used less.

The international community is pursuing the 1.5 degree target to prevent dangerous tipping points with irreversible consequences from being exceeded and to avert the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.

However, the measures that the states have planned so far are not nearly ambitious enough. According to the United Nations, the Earth is currently heading for a warming of more than 2.5 degrees.

Energy security remains under pressure

The threat of high global warming also poses risks to the energy sector, the IEA writes. Because the energy systems are built for a colder world with less extreme weather. Overall, energy markets remain tense, even if pressure has eased somewhat.

“The risk of further depreciation is ubiquitous,” the IEA estimates. And further:

However, according to the IEA, relief could soon come to the gas market. Numerous new LNG projects from 2025 onwards would significantly increase capacity, reduce prices and alleviate supply fears, although this could even lead to oversupply.

China as an influential factor

The Chinese economy is undergoing structural changes, the extent of which is not yet fully known, the IEA writes. The country’s energy demand could peak by the middle of this decade, while fossil fuel demand and fossil fuel emissions are expected to decline – with consequences for the global energy sector.

(cst/sda/dpa)