The worst is yet to come Western Afghanistan is hit again by a major earthquake

Everything seems ready. Following Hamas’ terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, the Israeli army gathered soldiers, tanks and military equipment at the border with the Gaza Strip. For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu it is clear: “We will destroy Hamas, but it will take time.”

Experts agree that Israel will enter the Gaza Strip with ground troops. This approach is considered the only way to permanently destroy Hamas’ military structures, making future attacks on Israel significantly more difficult. The prospect of bloody house-to-house fighting in the Gaza Strip is already a strategic nightmare for the Israeli army. Hamas is currently using the time to prepare for this battle.

Why then does Israel hesitate for so long?

There are several reasons for this: Israel must protect its own population against terrorism, but at the same time it must also protect the civilian population in the Gaza Strip. A huge dilemma. In the worst case, the powder keg in the Middle East could explode, resulting in a massacre in Gaza.

Nightmare for every attacker

One thing is clear: an operation in the Gaza Strip is a strategic horror scenario for the Israeli army. For years she did not shy away from that. There is a risk of door-to-door fighting in narrow streets, ambushes, booby traps and mines.

With its 2.2 million inhabitants, the Gaza Strip is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. Narrow streets, accessible roofs, the buildings have small windows: in addition, there is Hamas’ underground tunnel network, whose entrances are hidden under schools, mosques and other civilian buildings. You can read more about it here.

Everything indicates that the terrorists will force the Israeli army into a guerrilla war. Hamas has no uniforms and it is difficult to distinguish men from civilians. If one of them puts down his gun, he is no longer recognizable as a terrorist. Hamas can therefore go into hiding, even in underground bunkers.

The terrorist organization has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007 and has repeatedly tried to force Israel into door-to-door fighting. It has been able to prepare for this war for a long time and that makes the situation extremely dangerous for the Israeli army. Time is therefore playing into Hamas’s hands.

No war against civilians

Nevertheless, Israel decided to postpone the attack. Officially, the Israeli leadership said this weekend that the weather was too bad for an attack. It has even rained, making Israeli air and drone strikes difficult.

But the fundamental problem actually lies elsewhere. These are the tens of thousands of civilians still in the north of the Gaza Strip. Israel has asked these people to leave the area. It is still unclear where they can actually go. In the south, Egypt has closed its border with Gaza. People are stuck. Hamas also appears to be preventing the population from leaving Gaza City in the north. The Israeli army said on Sunday that roadblocks would show Hamas’s disregard for human lives.

Initially, the Israeli army command set Sunday noon as the deadline for the evacuation. But even after that the ground offensive did not start. Over time, Israel wanted to increase pressure to ensure that civilians left northern Gaza as quickly as possible. Arye Sharuz Shalicar, spokesman for the Israeli army, justified the delay in the counter-offensive in an ARD interview on Sunday, saying that even more Palestinian civilians would have to reach the south of the Gaza Strip so as not to endanger them in a ground offensive in Gaza . the north of the coastal strip.

Fear of the reversal between perpetrator and victim

There is already a communications war raging in Israel. Hamas seeks international support by seeking to exploit the suffering of the civilian population in the Gaza Strip. A perpetrator-victim reversal: the terrorists invaded Israel on October 7, killing at least 1,300 people – mostly civilians – and kidnapping hostages to the Gaza Strip.

“There will be civilian casualties and it will be a challenge for Israel to communicate this,” Christian Mölling, military expert at the German Council for Foreign Relations (DGAP), told t-online. But the expert makes it clear: “The ground offensive against Hamas is not a retaliatory attack, but Israel wants to prevent future attacks.”

Everything Israel does against Hamas will always have consequences for civilians. Many states are already calling on Israel to protect the Palestinian population. The United Nations also criticizes Israel for cutting off electricity and food supplies to the Gaza Strip. It is a humanitarian catastrophe that will likely ultimately benefit Hamas by fueling anger against Israel. The terrorist organization has already reported more than 2,200 deaths in the Gaza Strip as a result of Israeli airstrikes. The information cannot be verified.

Israel’s hesitation to launch the ground offensive may be primarily due to Israeli leaders’ fear of tens of thousands of civilian casualties, and the associated images that will then circulate around the world.

Israel does not want to fuel forest fires

Because there are political and military dangers for Israel. A massacre of civilians could undermine international support for Israel, even if Hamas started this war. Israel is clearly militarily superior to Hamas, leading to the international perception that the Israeli military must act in a measured and targeted manner. Despite the fact that Hamas militants use civilians for protection.

In this war, the leaders of Muslim countries in particular will come under increasing domestic political pressure to support the Palestinians’ struggle for freedom. In contrast, Hamas’s supporters – the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Syrian regime and especially Iran – could see the suffering of the Palestinians as a justification for participating in this war. A multi-front war Israel could win militarily, but the casualties on all sides would be catastrophic.

This scenario could blow up the powder keg in the Middle East and that is why the US is now once again acting as a security force. That is why US President Joe Biden sent an aircraft carrier and a fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean. The clear message to Israel’s enemies, including Iran: keep your feet still.

But it is unclear whether that will work. A call to join the fight against Israel is already circulating in the Iranian media. So now it’s about preventing a wildfire. Therefore, the US will have made an urgent appeal to Israel to keep the number of civilian casualties as low as possible. Given the situation in the region, postponing the ground attack is probably a strategically sensible move, but that does not make things any easier for the Israeli soldiers. They expect bloody fighting in the north of the Gaza Strip, where hopefully not many civilians will remain. Hopefully. Because the worst is yet to come for Gaza.

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