Liberal elections in Poland have consequences for Europe and Russia: that is why Donald Tusk’s election victory is so important

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Poland is facing a change of course. After this weekend’s elections, three pro-European opposition parties around former EU Council President Donald Tusk (66) will probably form the new government. The national-conservative right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (55), which has been in power for eight years, is still the strongest party, but even in coalition with the ultra-conservative Konfederacja this would not be the case. be able to gain a majority in government.

President Andrzej Duda (51) will decide who he will give the task of forming a government. Although he was a member of PiS until his presidential elections in 2015, he can hardly avoid passing the ball to the opposition due to the balance of power.

Voter turnout in the elections was about 73 percent higher than since 1989. Although the official results will not be announced until Tuesday morning, Tusk celebrated himself as the winner and new prime minister this weekend. He cheered: “Poland has won, democracy has won. We have debunked them. I am the happiest person on earth.” Tusk, a member of the liberal-conservative Civic Coalition (KO), was head of government from 2007 to 2014.

PiS planned death penalty

The PiS had led Poland on a Catholic-conservative course with anti-EU rhetoric: abortion bans, undermining the legal system, strict migration policies, control over the media – the introduction of the death penalty also became a problem.

Germany was increasingly seen as an enemy. The PiS demands 1.3 trillion euros in reparations from Berlin for the Second World War. The party accuses Tusk of being an agent of German interests.

Poland is at odds with the EU as Brussels has frozen around 36 billion euros in grants and loans from the EU’s economic stimulus program and imposed a fine of hundreds of millions over Poland’s controversial judicial reform.

Poland urgently needs money. Inflation is around 20 percent. Social benefits that the PiS had promised cannot be paid out.

New friendship with Brussels

Brussels will be happy with a new government. Kai-Olaf Lang (56), Poland expert at the Science and Politics Foundation in Berlin, says: “Although not all differences will disappear and Warsaw would also fight for its own interests on issues such as migration or climate policy, it is a pragmatic one and constructive policy can be expected. Poland will return to the political center of the EU, and the community will be strengthened as a result.”

There will likely be new emphases in dealing with the war in Ukraine, even with a new government. “The phase of enthusiastic support for Ukraine is over, and a new director in Warsaw will also want to protect the interests of Polish farmers in importing agricultural products,” says Lang.

However, the tone will be a bit more cautious. Lang: “Poland will maintain its role as an important hub for supplying Ukraine and its close security policy relationship with the US.”

The president has a veto

But even without government responsibility, the PiS would not simply disappear, says Kai-Olaf Lang. “She achieved a solid election result and will continue to appoint the president, who has veto power to delay legislation.”

Moreover, the party has created laws that are unlikely to be reversed quickly and could make life difficult for a new government. Lang: “A future government formed by the current opposition will not be able to simply govern.”

Source: Blick